Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble by Rowlands, D, Frame, D, Ackerley, D, Aina, T, Booth, B, Christensen, C, Collins, M, Faull, N, Forest, C, Grandey, B, Gryspeerdt, E, Highwood, E, Ingram, W, Knight, S, Lopez, A, Massey, N, McNamara, F, Meinshausen, N, Piani, C, Rosier, S, Sanderson, B, Smith, L, Stone, D, Thurston, M, Yamazaki, K