Valuation and appraisal of development sites with computer aided discounted cash flow technique and Monte Carlo simulation/

In the complex and dynamic property market today, the clients/investors/ bankers require a more than what it used to be a typical valuation report reporting the value of the subject property. They now require a more detailed analyses of the market taking into account of the uncertainty element which...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: 186448 Ganesh Chinnappan
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Published: Sekudai : UTM, 1992
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Summary:In the complex and dynamic property market today, the clients/investors/ bankers require a more than what it used to be a typical valuation report reporting the value of the subject property. They now require a more detailed analyses of the market taking into account of the uncertainty element which exist in every in every property development. They also require a tell all type of situations taking into account of all possible eventualities. Thus the valuer is required to be more analytical in his approach by implementing more new and advanced appraisal techniques in his analyses. There have been various technique/methods in tackling the uncertainty elements. Simulations in general and Monte Carlo Simulation in particular, although have been in the existence since the 1960's but have not been extensively used and earned the respect of valuers due to the inavailability of reasonably almost all valuation firms have their own personal computers which are widely used for word processing. The reason now for valuers not using the Monte Carlo Simulation in the valuation/appraisal of development sites is cited to the inavailability of computer programs which suite their needs to carry out such an exercise and also for the lack of their understanding on the Discounted Cash Flow technique. Hence, with this study, they (the valuers) can have access to a program to undertake the simulation exercise and to have a basic understanding n the Discounted Cash Flow technique itself. This study have proved that, provided with a source of good data, the Monte Carlo Simulation can be easily implemented in the valuation/appraisal of development sites, hence giving an edge to the valuers in preparing a report for the feasibility of a particular project. It is also hoped that with the study, the simulation exercise can be carried out with other tradisional valuation methods without much complications.