Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia
This paper presents the manual calibration effort for the System Dynamics (SD) COVID-19 model for Malaysia. This study aims to develop a COVID-19 SD model based on the COVID-19 scenario in Malaysia. The SD model consisted of nine compartments and was adapted based on a standard disease SEIR model us...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English English |
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IEEE
2023
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| Online Access: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/1/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics%20Model%20Validation%20For%20COVID-19%20Case%20In%20Malaysia.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/2/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics.pdf |
| _version_ | 1825815163235729408 |
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| author | Aisyah, Ibrahim Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir MacDonald, Roderick H. Hamdan, Daniyal |
| author_facet | Aisyah, Ibrahim Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir MacDonald, Roderick H. Hamdan, Daniyal |
| author_sort | Aisyah, Ibrahim |
| collection | UMP |
| description | This paper presents the manual calibration effort for the System Dynamics (SD) COVID-19 model for Malaysia. This study aims to develop a COVID-19 SD model based on the COVID-19 scenario in Malaysia. The SD model consisted of nine compartments and was adapted based on a standard disease SEIR model using Vensim software. While the development of the model is still ongoing, an initial validation was carried out between ‘Actively Infected’ and the case data gathered from the Malaysia Ministry of Health's official COVID-19 websites. During this period, the parameters were manually adjusted by hand to align the model's output with the actual data. The expected outcome was not easy to achieve, but the result was acceptable. It is important to note that the lack of such strategies may compromise the model’s validity due to uncertainty. This paper also discusses the challenges posed by hand calibration, the lessons learned during this work, and the potential future implications of this work. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T13:09:19Z |
| format | Conference or Workshop Item |
| id | UMPir38716 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Pahang |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T13:09:19Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publisher | IEEE |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | UMPir387162023-09-29T09:48:53Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/ Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia Aisyah, Ibrahim Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir MacDonald, Roderick H. Hamdan, Daniyal QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology (General) TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering This paper presents the manual calibration effort for the System Dynamics (SD) COVID-19 model for Malaysia. This study aims to develop a COVID-19 SD model based on the COVID-19 scenario in Malaysia. The SD model consisted of nine compartments and was adapted based on a standard disease SEIR model using Vensim software. While the development of the model is still ongoing, an initial validation was carried out between ‘Actively Infected’ and the case data gathered from the Malaysia Ministry of Health's official COVID-19 websites. During this period, the parameters were manually adjusted by hand to align the model's output with the actual data. The expected outcome was not easy to achieve, but the result was acceptable. It is important to note that the lack of such strategies may compromise the model’s validity due to uncertainty. This paper also discusses the challenges posed by hand calibration, the lessons learned during this work, and the potential future implications of this work. IEEE 2023 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/1/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics%20Model%20Validation%20For%20COVID-19%20Case%20In%20Malaysia.pdf pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/2/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics.pdf Aisyah, Ibrahim and Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir and MacDonald, Roderick H. and Hamdan, Daniyal (2023) Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia. In: 2023 IEEE 8th International Conference On Software Engineering and Computer Systems (ICSECS) , 25-27 August 2023 , Penang, Malaysia. pp. 200-204.. ISBN 979-8-3503-1094-8 (Published) https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSECS58457.2023.10256349 |
| spellingShingle | QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology (General) TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Aisyah, Ibrahim Tuty Asmawaty, Abdul Kadir MacDonald, Roderick H. Hamdan, Daniyal Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia |
| title | Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia |
| title_full | Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia |
| title_fullStr | Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia |
| title_short | Hand Calibration with Limited Data As The Initial Step Towards System Dynamics Model Validation For COVID-19 Case In Malaysia |
| title_sort | hand calibration with limited data as the initial step towards system dynamics model validation for covid 19 case in malaysia |
| topic | QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology (General) TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering |
| url | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/1/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics%20Model%20Validation%20For%20COVID-19%20Case%20In%20Malaysia.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/38716/2/Hand%20Calibration%20with%20Limited%20Data%20As%20The%20Initial%20Step%20Towards%20System%20Dynamics.pdf |
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