The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]
Background: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wellcome
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Wellcome Open Research |
| Online Access: | https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-213/v1 |
| _version_ | 1818461428563050496 |
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| author | Trystan Leng Connor White Joe Hilton Adam Kucharski Lorenzo Pellis Helena Stage Nicholas G. Davies Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease 2019 nCoV Working Group Matt J. Keeling Stefan Flasche |
| author_facet | Trystan Leng Connor White Joe Hilton Adam Kucharski Lorenzo Pellis Helena Stage Nicholas G. Davies Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease 2019 nCoV Working Group Matt J. Keeling Stefan Flasche |
| author_sort | Trystan Leng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results: Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T23:45:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0026b5b5719b462facd69d6ea5009778 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2398-502X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T23:45:59Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Wellcome |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Wellcome Open Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-0026b5b5719b462facd69d6ea50097782022-12-21T22:43:22ZengWellcomeWellcome Open Research2398-502X2020-09-01510.12688/wellcomeopenres.16164.117747The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]Trystan Leng0Connor White1Joe Hilton2Adam Kucharski3Lorenzo Pellis4Helena Stage5Nicholas G. Davies6Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease 2019 nCoV Working GroupMatt J. Keeling7Stefan Flasche8The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UKThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UKThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UKCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UKDepartment of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UKDepartment of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UKCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UKThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UKCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UKBackground: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results: Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk.https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-213/v1 |
| spellingShingle | Trystan Leng Connor White Joe Hilton Adam Kucharski Lorenzo Pellis Helena Stage Nicholas G. Davies Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease 2019 nCoV Working Group Matt J. Keeling Stefan Flasche The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] Wellcome Open Research |
| title | The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] |
| title_full | The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] |
| title_fullStr | The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] |
| title_full_unstemmed | The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] |
| title_short | The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] |
| title_sort | effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a covid 19 lockdown exit strategy a modelling study version 1 peer review 2 approved |
| url | https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-213/v1 |
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