The impact of rising maritime transport costs on international trade: Estimation using a multi-region general equilibrium model
This paper evaluates the impact of the 2021–22 surge in rates for containerized and bulk shipping costs. Employing a detailed transport database and applying a set of detailed shocks by transportation mode, regions and commodities in a multi-region general equilibrium model, the paper analyses the s...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198223002324 |
| _version_ | 1797390388691992576 |
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| author | Emanuele Ferrari Panayotis Christidis Paolo Bolsi |
| author_facet | Emanuele Ferrari Panayotis Christidis Paolo Bolsi |
| author_sort | Emanuele Ferrari |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper evaluates the impact of the 2021–22 surge in rates for containerized and bulk shipping costs. Employing a detailed transport database and applying a set of detailed shocks by transportation mode, regions and commodities in a multi-region general equilibrium model, the paper analyses the sectorial (agri-food sectors, manufacturing) and macroeconomic (trade, wide-economic indicators) impacts of the recent surge in shipping costs. Maritime transport costs are sensitive to imbalances between global demand and supply, which rose further after the Covid-19 pandemic. In a globalised world, an increase in shipping rates can have widespread repercussions on international trade, creating risks for the global economic activity. The results allow the analysis of how shocks in transport costs can affect prices in international trade and explain the short- and medium-term impacts on the economy. The main finding is that rising maritime transport costs tend to reverse the trend towards globalisation of international trade and favour localization. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T23:11:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-00e90e5e7de248eb8243c8ffcda769d0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2590-1982 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T23:11:00Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives |
| spelling | doaj.art-00e90e5e7de248eb8243c8ffcda769d02023-12-15T07:25:47ZengElsevierTransportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives2590-19822023-11-0122100985The impact of rising maritime transport costs on international trade: Estimation using a multi-region general equilibrium modelEmanuele Ferrari0Panayotis Christidis1Paolo Bolsi2European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville, Spain; Corresponding author.European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville, SpainEuropean Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development (AGRI), Brussels, BelgiumThis paper evaluates the impact of the 2021–22 surge in rates for containerized and bulk shipping costs. Employing a detailed transport database and applying a set of detailed shocks by transportation mode, regions and commodities in a multi-region general equilibrium model, the paper analyses the sectorial (agri-food sectors, manufacturing) and macroeconomic (trade, wide-economic indicators) impacts of the recent surge in shipping costs. Maritime transport costs are sensitive to imbalances between global demand and supply, which rose further after the Covid-19 pandemic. In a globalised world, an increase in shipping rates can have widespread repercussions on international trade, creating risks for the global economic activity. The results allow the analysis of how shocks in transport costs can affect prices in international trade and explain the short- and medium-term impacts on the economy. The main finding is that rising maritime transport costs tend to reverse the trend towards globalisation of international trade and favour localization.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198223002324Maritime transportInternational tradeEconomic impactsComputable general equilibrium |
| spellingShingle | Emanuele Ferrari Panayotis Christidis Paolo Bolsi The impact of rising maritime transport costs on international trade: Estimation using a multi-region general equilibrium model Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Maritime transport International trade Economic impacts Computable general equilibrium |
| title | The impact of rising maritime transport costs on international trade: Estimation using a multi-region general equilibrium model |
| title_full | The impact of rising maritime transport costs on international trade: Estimation using a multi-region general equilibrium model |
| title_fullStr | The impact of rising maritime transport costs on international trade: Estimation using a multi-region general equilibrium model |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of rising maritime transport costs on international trade: Estimation using a multi-region general equilibrium model |
| title_short | The impact of rising maritime transport costs on international trade: Estimation using a multi-region general equilibrium model |
| title_sort | impact of rising maritime transport costs on international trade estimation using a multi region general equilibrium model |
| topic | Maritime transport International trade Economic impacts Computable general equilibrium |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198223002324 |
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