The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition
The collective recognition heuristic is a simple forecasting heuristic that bets on the fact that people’s recognition knowledge of names is a proxy for their competitiveness: In sports, it predicts that the better-known team or player wins a game. We present two studies on the predictive power of r...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2011-02-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500002096/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1827826935548346368 |
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| author | Stefan M. Herzog Ralph Hertwig Julian N. Marewski Rüdiger F. Pohl Oliver Vitouch |
| author_facet | Stefan M. Herzog Ralph Hertwig Julian N. Marewski Rüdiger F. Pohl Oliver Vitouch |
| author_sort | Stefan M. Herzog |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The collective recognition heuristic is a simple forecasting heuristic that bets on the fact that people’s recognition knowledge of names is a proxy for their competitiveness: In sports, it predicts that the better-known team or player wins a game. We present two studies on the predictive power of recognition in forecasting soccer games (World Cup 2006 and UEFA Euro 2008) and analyze previously published results. The performance of the collective recognition heuristic is compared to two benchmarks: predictions based on official rankings and aggregated betting odds. Across three soccer and two tennis tournaments, the predictions based on recognition performed similar to those based on rankings; when compared with betting odds, the heuristic fared reasonably well. Forecasts based on rankings—but not on betting odds—were improved by incorporating collective recognition information. We discuss the use of recognition for forecasting in sports and conclude that aggregating across individual ignorance spawns collective wisdom. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T03:19:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0100b7c11c76434fb5b7e4d1f8ece754 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T03:19:43Z |
| publishDate | 2011-02-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-0100b7c11c76434fb5b7e4d1f8ece7542023-09-03T14:02:47ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752011-02-016587210.1017/S1930297500002096The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognitionStefan M. HerzogRalph Hertwig0Julian N. MarewskiRüdiger F. PohlOliver VitouchDepartment of Psychology, University of BaselThe collective recognition heuristic is a simple forecasting heuristic that bets on the fact that people’s recognition knowledge of names is a proxy for their competitiveness: In sports, it predicts that the better-known team or player wins a game. We present two studies on the predictive power of recognition in forecasting soccer games (World Cup 2006 and UEFA Euro 2008) and analyze previously published results. The performance of the collective recognition heuristic is compared to two benchmarks: predictions based on official rankings and aggregated betting odds. Across three soccer and two tennis tournaments, the predictions based on recognition performed similar to those based on rankings; when compared with betting odds, the heuristic fared reasonably well. Forecasts based on rankings—but not on betting odds—were improved by incorporating collective recognition information. We discuss the use of recognition for forecasting in sports and conclude that aggregating across individual ignorance spawns collective wisdom.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500002096/type/journal_articlesports forecastingrankingsbetting oddssimple heuristicsname recognitionmemory |
| spellingShingle | Stefan M. Herzog Ralph Hertwig Julian N. Marewski Rüdiger F. Pohl Oliver Vitouch The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition Judgment and Decision Making sports forecasting rankings betting odds simple heuristics name recognition memory |
| title | The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition |
| title_full | The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition |
| title_fullStr | The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition |
| title_full_unstemmed | The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition |
| title_short | The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition |
| title_sort | wisdom of ignorant crowds predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition |
| topic | sports forecasting rankings betting odds simple heuristics name recognition memory |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500002096/type/journal_article |
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