The parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projections
Abstract The parametric hurricane rainfall model (PHRaM), firstly introduced in 2007, has been widely used to forecast and quantify tropical-cyclone-induced rainfall (TC rainfall). The PHRaM is much more computationally efficient than global climate models, but PHRaM cannot be effectively utilized i...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-11-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00308-9 |
| _version_ | 1828309979052900352 |
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| author | Dasol Kim Doo-Sun R. Park Chaehyeon C. Nam Michael M. Bell |
| author_facet | Dasol Kim Doo-Sun R. Park Chaehyeon C. Nam Michael M. Bell |
| author_sort | Dasol Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The parametric hurricane rainfall model (PHRaM), firstly introduced in 2007, has been widely used to forecast and quantify tropical-cyclone-induced rainfall (TC rainfall). The PHRaM is much more computationally efficient than global climate models, but PHRaM cannot be effectively utilized in the context of climate change because it does not have any parameters to capture the increase of tropospheric water vapor under the warming world. This study develops a new model that incorporates tropospheric water vapor to the PHRaM framework, named as the PHRaM with moisture (PHRaMM). The PHRaMM is trained to best fit the TC rainfall over the western North Pacific (WNP) unlike the PHRaM trained with the TCs over the continental US. The PHRaMM reliably simulates radial profile of TC rainfall and spatial distribution of accumulated rainfall during landfall in the present climate with the better prediction skills than existing statistical and operational numerical models. Using the PHRaMM, we evaluated the impacts of TC intensity and environmental moisture increase on TC rainfall change in a future climate. An increased TC intensity causes TC rainfall to increase in the inner-core region but to decrease in the outer region, whereas an increased environmental moisture causes the TC rainfall to increase over the entire TC area. According to the both effects of increased TC intensity and environmental moisture, the PHRaMM projected that the WNP TC rainfall could increase by 4.61–8.51% in the inner-core region and by 17.96–20.91% over the entire TC area under the 2-K warming scenario. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T15:36:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0128f719d3a34305b7475f87d4c07bc7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T15:36:07Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-0128f719d3a34305b7475f87d4c07bc72022-12-22T02:41:15ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222022-11-01511710.1038/s41612-022-00308-9The parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projectionsDasol Kim0Doo-Sun R. Park1Chaehyeon C. Nam2Michael M. Bell3Department of Geography, University of FloridaDepartment of Earth Science Education, Kyungpook National UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityAbstract The parametric hurricane rainfall model (PHRaM), firstly introduced in 2007, has been widely used to forecast and quantify tropical-cyclone-induced rainfall (TC rainfall). The PHRaM is much more computationally efficient than global climate models, but PHRaM cannot be effectively utilized in the context of climate change because it does not have any parameters to capture the increase of tropospheric water vapor under the warming world. This study develops a new model that incorporates tropospheric water vapor to the PHRaM framework, named as the PHRaM with moisture (PHRaMM). The PHRaMM is trained to best fit the TC rainfall over the western North Pacific (WNP) unlike the PHRaM trained with the TCs over the continental US. The PHRaMM reliably simulates radial profile of TC rainfall and spatial distribution of accumulated rainfall during landfall in the present climate with the better prediction skills than existing statistical and operational numerical models. Using the PHRaMM, we evaluated the impacts of TC intensity and environmental moisture increase on TC rainfall change in a future climate. An increased TC intensity causes TC rainfall to increase in the inner-core region but to decrease in the outer region, whereas an increased environmental moisture causes the TC rainfall to increase over the entire TC area. According to the both effects of increased TC intensity and environmental moisture, the PHRaMM projected that the WNP TC rainfall could increase by 4.61–8.51% in the inner-core region and by 17.96–20.91% over the entire TC area under the 2-K warming scenario.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00308-9 |
| spellingShingle | Dasol Kim Doo-Sun R. Park Chaehyeon C. Nam Michael M. Bell The parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projections npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | The parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projections |
| title_full | The parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projections |
| title_fullStr | The parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | The parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projections |
| title_short | The parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projections |
| title_sort | parametric hurricane rainfall model with moisture and its application to climate change projections |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00308-9 |
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