A low-order dynamical model for fire-vegetation-climate interactions
Climate conditions play a key role in determining the occurrence and severity of wildfires. Despite the impacts of wildfires on ecosystems, human livelihoods, and air quality, little is known conceptually about how natural or anthropogenic shifts in climate may influence the fire activity on a regio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8696 |
| _version_ | 1797747350013214720 |
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| author | Soong-Ki Kim Axel Timmermann Jin-Soo Kim Roman Olson Soon-Il An |
| author_facet | Soong-Ki Kim Axel Timmermann Jin-Soo Kim Roman Olson Soon-Il An |
| author_sort | Soong-Ki Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate conditions play a key role in determining the occurrence and severity of wildfires. Despite the impacts of wildfires on ecosystems, human livelihoods, and air quality, little is known conceptually about how natural or anthropogenic shifts in climate may influence the fire activity on a regional or global scale. Here, we introduce a new low order dynamical model that describes the nonlinear interactions between climate, vegetation (fire fuel) and fire probabilities. This 1-dimensional model describes the influence of precipitation and temperature on burned area and fuel availability. Estimating key parameters from observations, the model successfully reproduces the spatio-temporal variability of wildfire occurrences, particularly, in semi-arid regions in Africa, South America, and northern Australia. The fidelity of the model translates into a high degree of longer-term predictability of fire conditions in these vulnerable regions. Our new low-order modeling framework may provide guidance to forestry managers to assess fire risks under present and future climate conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:49:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0170c96a6b094677bc063d69417f56f6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:49:29Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-0170c96a6b094677bc063d69417f56f62023-08-09T15:14:46ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117909400410.1088/1748-9326/ac8696A low-order dynamical model for fire-vegetation-climate interactionsSoong-Ki Kim0Axel Timmermann1Jin-Soo Kim2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0631-2294Roman Olson3Soon-Il An4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0003-429XDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of Korea; Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of KoreaCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science , Busan, Republic of Korea; Pusan National University , Busan, Republic of KoreaLow-Carbon and Climate Impact Research Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong , Hong Kong, People’s Republic of ChinaIrreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of Korea; Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University , Seoul, Republic of Korea; Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) , Pohang, Republic of KoreaClimate conditions play a key role in determining the occurrence and severity of wildfires. Despite the impacts of wildfires on ecosystems, human livelihoods, and air quality, little is known conceptually about how natural or anthropogenic shifts in climate may influence the fire activity on a regional or global scale. Here, we introduce a new low order dynamical model that describes the nonlinear interactions between climate, vegetation (fire fuel) and fire probabilities. This 1-dimensional model describes the influence of precipitation and temperature on burned area and fuel availability. Estimating key parameters from observations, the model successfully reproduces the spatio-temporal variability of wildfire occurrences, particularly, in semi-arid regions in Africa, South America, and northern Australia. The fidelity of the model translates into a high degree of longer-term predictability of fire conditions in these vulnerable regions. Our new low-order modeling framework may provide guidance to forestry managers to assess fire risks under present and future climate conditions.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8696fire predictionfire modelclimate effect on firevegetation |
| spellingShingle | Soong-Ki Kim Axel Timmermann Jin-Soo Kim Roman Olson Soon-Il An A low-order dynamical model for fire-vegetation-climate interactions Environmental Research Letters fire prediction fire model climate effect on fire vegetation |
| title | A low-order dynamical model for fire-vegetation-climate interactions |
| title_full | A low-order dynamical model for fire-vegetation-climate interactions |
| title_fullStr | A low-order dynamical model for fire-vegetation-climate interactions |
| title_full_unstemmed | A low-order dynamical model for fire-vegetation-climate interactions |
| title_short | A low-order dynamical model for fire-vegetation-climate interactions |
| title_sort | low order dynamical model for fire vegetation climate interactions |
| topic | fire prediction fire model climate effect on fire vegetation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8696 |
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