Predictably intransitive preferences
The transitivity axiom is common to nearly all descriptive and normative utility theories of choice under risk. Contrary to both intuition and common assumption, the little-known 'Steinhaus-Trybula paradox' shows the relation 'stochastically greater than' will not always be trans...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2018-05-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/17/17912b/jdm17912b.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797727244288786432 |
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| author | David J. Butler Ganna Pogrebna |
| author_facet | David J. Butler Ganna Pogrebna |
| author_sort | David J. Butler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The transitivity
axiom is common to nearly all descriptive and normative utility theories of
choice under risk. Contrary to both intuition and common assumption, the
little-known 'Steinhaus-Trybula paradox' shows the relation 'stochastically
greater than' will not always be transitive, in contradiction of Weak
Stochastic Transitivity. We bespoke-design pairs of lotteries inspired by the
paradox, over which individual preferences might cycle. We run an experiment to
look for evidence of cycles, and violations of expansion/contraction
consistency between choice sets. Even after considering possible stochastic but
transitive explanations, we show that cycles can be the modal preference
pattern over these simple lotteries, and we find systematic violations of
expansion/contraction consistency. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T10:57:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-01880ca8dde1477b90f871fbdc962635 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T10:57:03Z |
| publishDate | 2018-05-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-01880ca8dde1477b90f871fbdc9626352023-09-02T06:11:32ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752018-05-01133217236Predictably intransitive preferencesDavid J. ButlerGanna PogrebnaThe transitivity axiom is common to nearly all descriptive and normative utility theories of choice under risk. Contrary to both intuition and common assumption, the little-known 'Steinhaus-Trybula paradox' shows the relation 'stochastically greater than' will not always be transitive, in contradiction of Weak Stochastic Transitivity. We bespoke-design pairs of lotteries inspired by the paradox, over which individual preferences might cycle. We run an experiment to look for evidence of cycles, and violations of expansion/contraction consistency between choice sets. Even after considering possible stochastic but transitive explanations, we show that cycles can be the modal preference pattern over these simple lotteries, and we find systematic violations of expansion/contraction consistency.http://journal.sjdm.org/17/17912b/jdm17912b.pdfintransitivity cycles lotteries experiment expansion consistencyNAKeywords |
| spellingShingle | David J. Butler Ganna Pogrebna Predictably intransitive preferences Judgment and Decision Making intransitivity cycles lotteries experiment expansion consistencyNAKeywords |
| title | Predictably
intransitive preferences |
| title_full | Predictably
intransitive preferences |
| title_fullStr | Predictably
intransitive preferences |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictably
intransitive preferences |
| title_short | Predictably
intransitive preferences |
| title_sort | predictably intransitive preferences |
| topic | intransitivity cycles lotteries experiment expansion consistencyNAKeywords |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/17/17912b/jdm17912b.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT davidjbutler predictablyintransitivepreferences AT gannapogrebna predictablyintransitivepreferences |