Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions
The Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO _2 Emissions (TCRE) is the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO _2 emissions. The TCRE implies a finite quantity of CO _2 emissions, or carbon budget, consistent with a given temperature change limit. The uncertainty of t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7b |
| _version_ | 1797747564719636480 |
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| author | Lynsay Spafford Andrew H MacDougall |
| author_facet | Lynsay Spafford Andrew H MacDougall |
| author_sort | Lynsay Spafford |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO _2 Emissions (TCRE) is the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO _2 emissions. The TCRE implies a finite quantity of CO _2 emissions, or carbon budget, consistent with a given temperature change limit. The uncertainty of the TCRE is often assumed be normally distributed, but this assumption has yet to be validated. We calculated the TCRE using a zero-dimensional ocean diffusive model and a Monte-Carlo error propagation ( n = 10 000 000) randomly drawing from probability density functions of the climate feedback parameter, the land-borne fraction of carbon, radiative forcing from an e-fold increase in CO _2 concentration, effective ocean diffusivity, and the ratio of sea to global surface temperature change. The calculated TCRE has a positively skewed distribution, ranging from 1.1 to 2.9 K EgC ^−1 (5%–95% confidence), with a mean and median value of 1.9 and 1.8 K EgC ^−1 . The calculated distribution of the TCRE is well described by a log-normal distribution. The CO _2 -only carbon budget compatible with 2 °C warming is 1100 PgC, ranging from 700 to 1800 PgC (5%–95% confidence) estimated using a simplified model of ocean dynamics. Climate sensitivity is the most influential Earth System parameter on the TCRE, followed by the land-borne fraction of carbon, radiative forcing from an e-fold increase in CO _2 , effective ocean diffusivity, and the ratio of sea to global surface temperature change. While the uncertainty of the TCRE is considerable, the use of a log-normal distribution may improve estimations of the TCRE and associated carbon budgets. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-01e906ef0dd742cca6582e4c63bc5352 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:25Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-01e906ef0dd742cca6582e4c63bc53522023-08-09T15:03:10ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115303404410.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7bQuantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissionsLynsay Spafford0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9388-8576Andrew H MacDougall1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1094-6783Department of Environmental Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland , St. John’s, Canada; Climate and Environment, Saint Francis Xavier University , Antigonish, CanadaClimate and Environment, Saint Francis Xavier University , Antigonish, CanadaThe Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO _2 Emissions (TCRE) is the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO _2 emissions. The TCRE implies a finite quantity of CO _2 emissions, or carbon budget, consistent with a given temperature change limit. The uncertainty of the TCRE is often assumed be normally distributed, but this assumption has yet to be validated. We calculated the TCRE using a zero-dimensional ocean diffusive model and a Monte-Carlo error propagation ( n = 10 000 000) randomly drawing from probability density functions of the climate feedback parameter, the land-borne fraction of carbon, radiative forcing from an e-fold increase in CO _2 concentration, effective ocean diffusivity, and the ratio of sea to global surface temperature change. The calculated TCRE has a positively skewed distribution, ranging from 1.1 to 2.9 K EgC ^−1 (5%–95% confidence), with a mean and median value of 1.9 and 1.8 K EgC ^−1 . The calculated distribution of the TCRE is well described by a log-normal distribution. The CO _2 -only carbon budget compatible with 2 °C warming is 1100 PgC, ranging from 700 to 1800 PgC (5%–95% confidence) estimated using a simplified model of ocean dynamics. Climate sensitivity is the most influential Earth System parameter on the TCRE, followed by the land-borne fraction of carbon, radiative forcing from an e-fold increase in CO _2 , effective ocean diffusivity, and the ratio of sea to global surface temperature change. While the uncertainty of the TCRE is considerable, the use of a log-normal distribution may improve estimations of the TCRE and associated carbon budgets.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7btransient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissionscarbon budgetsclimate sensitivityland-borne fraction of carboncarbon-climate feedback |
| spellingShingle | Lynsay Spafford Andrew H MacDougall Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions Environmental Research Letters transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions carbon budgets climate sensitivity land-borne fraction of carbon carbon-climate feedback |
| title | Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions |
| title_full | Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions |
| title_short | Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions |
| title_sort | quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative co2 emissions |
| topic | transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions carbon budgets climate sensitivity land-borne fraction of carbon carbon-climate feedback |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7b |
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