Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods
<p>In recent years, many components of the connection between Eurasian autumn snow cover and wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been investigated, suggesting that November snow cover distribution has strong prediction power for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter climate. How...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-05-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/11/509/2020/esd-11-509-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818447764755841024 |
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| author | M. Wegmann M. Rohrer M. Rohrer M. Rohrer M. Santolaria-Otín G. Lohmann |
| author_facet | M. Wegmann M. Rohrer M. Rohrer M. Rohrer M. Santolaria-Otín G. Lohmann |
| author_sort | M. Wegmann |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>In recent years, many components of the connection between Eurasian autumn
snow cover and wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been
investigated, suggesting that November snow cover distribution has strong
prediction power for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter climate.
However, the non-stationarity of this relationship could impact its use for
prediction routines. Here we use snow products from long-term reanalyses to
investigate interannual and interdecadal links between autumnal snow cover
and atmospheric conditions in winter. We find evidence for a negative
NAO-like signal after November with a strong west-to-east snow cover
gradient, which is valid throughout the last 150 years. This correlation is consistently linked to a weak stratospheric polar vortex state. Nevertheless, decadal evolution of this link shows
episodes of decreased correlation strength, which co-occur with episodes of
low variability in the November snow index. By contrast, periods with
high prediction skill for winter NAO are found in periods of high November
snow variability, which co-occur with the Arctic warming periods of the
20th century, namely the early 20th-century Arctic warming between
1920 and 1940 and the ongoing anthropogenic global warming at the end of the
20th century. A strong snow dipole itself is consistently associated
with reduced Barents–Kara sea ice concentration, increased Ural blocking
frequency and negative temperature anomalies in eastern Eurasia.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T20:08:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-01eaf2a6a3404ab1b4eda1a09ee22621 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T20:08:48Z |
| publishDate | 2020-05-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-01eaf2a6a3404ab1b4eda1a09ee226212022-12-21T22:48:58ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872020-05-011150952410.5194/esd-11-509-2020Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periodsM. Wegmann0M. Rohrer1M. Rohrer2M. Rohrer3M. Santolaria-Otín4G. Lohmann5Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, GermanyOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandInstitute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerlandnow at: Axis Capital, Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Université Grenoble-Alpes, Grenoble, FranceAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany<p>In recent years, many components of the connection between Eurasian autumn snow cover and wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been investigated, suggesting that November snow cover distribution has strong prediction power for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter climate. However, the non-stationarity of this relationship could impact its use for prediction routines. Here we use snow products from long-term reanalyses to investigate interannual and interdecadal links between autumnal snow cover and atmospheric conditions in winter. We find evidence for a negative NAO-like signal after November with a strong west-to-east snow cover gradient, which is valid throughout the last 150 years. This correlation is consistently linked to a weak stratospheric polar vortex state. Nevertheless, decadal evolution of this link shows episodes of decreased correlation strength, which co-occur with episodes of low variability in the November snow index. By contrast, periods with high prediction skill for winter NAO are found in periods of high November snow variability, which co-occur with the Arctic warming periods of the 20th century, namely the early 20th-century Arctic warming between 1920 and 1940 and the ongoing anthropogenic global warming at the end of the 20th century. A strong snow dipole itself is consistently associated with reduced Barents–Kara sea ice concentration, increased Ural blocking frequency and negative temperature anomalies in eastern Eurasia.</p>https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/11/509/2020/esd-11-509-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. Wegmann M. Rohrer M. Rohrer M. Rohrer M. Santolaria-Otín G. Lohmann Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
| title_full | Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
| title_fullStr | Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
| title_short | Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods |
| title_sort | eurasian autumn snow link to winter north atlantic oscillation is strongest for arctic warming periods |
| url | https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/11/509/2020/esd-11-509-2020.pdf |
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