Quantifying the potential impact of mass media campaigns on mitigating the spread of chikungunya virus during outbreaks in heterogeneous population
In recent decades, media campaigns have played an important role in assessing, preventing and controlling infectious diseases. However, little progress has been made in quantifying its impact during chikungunya epidemics. In order to address this critical gap, this paper develops and analyzes a clim...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Informatics in Medicine Unlocked |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352914823001429 |
| _version_ | 1797785485458800640 |
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| author | Eva Lusekelo Mlyashimbi Helikumi Dmitry Kuznetsov Steady Mushayabasa |
| author_facet | Eva Lusekelo Mlyashimbi Helikumi Dmitry Kuznetsov Steady Mushayabasa |
| author_sort | Eva Lusekelo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent decades, media campaigns have played an important role in assessing, preventing and controlling infectious diseases. However, little progress has been made in quantifying its impact during chikungunya epidemics. In order to address this critical gap, this paper develops and analyzes a climate-based model of chikungunya virus disease that incorporates mass media campaigns and heterogeneous biting exposures. We obtained the basic reproduction numbers associated with the proposed model and determined the results of the threshold dynamics. We calibrated our model based on literature data and validated it with monthly observed chikungunya cases in Madhya Pradesh, India (2016–2017). The results show that mass media campaigns can significantly reduce the spread of the disease. It can also limit the occurrence of future outbreaks in the next few years. We also observed that media fatigue may reduce the impact of media to mitigate the spread of chikungunya virus. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:54:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-02015219eb0f4395addd55896dc63318 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2352-9148 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:54:45Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Informatics in Medicine Unlocked |
| spelling | doaj.art-02015219eb0f4395addd55896dc633182023-07-07T04:27:25ZengElsevierInformatics in Medicine Unlocked2352-91482023-01-0140101296Quantifying the potential impact of mass media campaigns on mitigating the spread of chikungunya virus during outbreaks in heterogeneous populationEva Lusekelo0Mlyashimbi Helikumi1Dmitry Kuznetsov2Steady Mushayabasa3School of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania; Department of Mathematics, College of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, University of Dodoma, Dodoma, TanzaniaMbeya University of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science and Technical Education, P.O. Box 131, Mbeya, TanzaniaSchool of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, TanzaniaUniversity of Zimbabwe, Department of Mathematics and Computational Sciences, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, Zimbabwe; Corresponding author.In recent decades, media campaigns have played an important role in assessing, preventing and controlling infectious diseases. However, little progress has been made in quantifying its impact during chikungunya epidemics. In order to address this critical gap, this paper develops and analyzes a climate-based model of chikungunya virus disease that incorporates mass media campaigns and heterogeneous biting exposures. We obtained the basic reproduction numbers associated with the proposed model and determined the results of the threshold dynamics. We calibrated our model based on literature data and validated it with monthly observed chikungunya cases in Madhya Pradesh, India (2016–2017). The results show that mass media campaigns can significantly reduce the spread of the disease. It can also limit the occurrence of future outbreaks in the next few years. We also observed that media fatigue may reduce the impact of media to mitigate the spread of chikungunya virus.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352914823001429Chikungunya feverMathematical modelSeasonalityMass media campaignsHeterogeneity |
| spellingShingle | Eva Lusekelo Mlyashimbi Helikumi Dmitry Kuznetsov Steady Mushayabasa Quantifying the potential impact of mass media campaigns on mitigating the spread of chikungunya virus during outbreaks in heterogeneous population Informatics in Medicine Unlocked Chikungunya fever Mathematical model Seasonality Mass media campaigns Heterogeneity |
| title | Quantifying the potential impact of mass media campaigns on mitigating the spread of chikungunya virus during outbreaks in heterogeneous population |
| title_full | Quantifying the potential impact of mass media campaigns on mitigating the spread of chikungunya virus during outbreaks in heterogeneous population |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the potential impact of mass media campaigns on mitigating the spread of chikungunya virus during outbreaks in heterogeneous population |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the potential impact of mass media campaigns on mitigating the spread of chikungunya virus during outbreaks in heterogeneous population |
| title_short | Quantifying the potential impact of mass media campaigns on mitigating the spread of chikungunya virus during outbreaks in heterogeneous population |
| title_sort | quantifying the potential impact of mass media campaigns on mitigating the spread of chikungunya virus during outbreaks in heterogeneous population |
| topic | Chikungunya fever Mathematical model Seasonality Mass media campaigns Heterogeneity |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352914823001429 |
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