ON CORRECTNESS OF BAYES FORMULA
The inadmissibility of the comparison and cooperative processing of the conditional probabilities calculated with the use of the known variations of Bayes formula considering a well-defined amount of the accumulated evidences is established. This statement is justified as follows. Due to the unequal...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
| Published: |
Don State Technical University
2014-09-01
|
| Series: | Advanced Engineering Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.vestnik-donstu.ru/jour/article/view/326 |
| _version_ | 1797881402458374144 |
|---|---|
| author | Alexander Ivanovich Dolgov |
| author_facet | Alexander Ivanovich Dolgov |
| author_sort | Alexander Ivanovich Dolgov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The inadmissibility of the comparison and cooperative processing of the conditional probabilities calculated with the use of the known variations of Bayes formula considering a well-defined amount of the accumulated evidences is established. This statement is justified as follows. Due to the unequal normalization, the results leading to the conclusions mismatching the probability-theoretical law are obtained. The examples of the concrete initial data show that in the case of using the traditional formulas, the multiplicative effect is missing: reducing the posteriori conditional probabilities of each of the hypotheses under the multiplicative accumulating evidences is unfeasible. The Bayesian formula modifications are offered. They provide a well-defined quantity of sequentially accumulated evidences constructed through the common divisor which is equal to the sum of the values of all normalizable probabilities liable to comparison or cooperative processing. In contrast to the well-known formulas, due to the correct normalization, the results significantly more adequate to the initial statistics are obtained. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T03:18:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0223f894f4fc4869a1712d7caffd83db |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2687-1653 |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T03:18:30Z |
| publishDate | 2014-09-01 |
| publisher | Don State Technical University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advanced Engineering Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-0223f894f4fc4869a1712d7caffd83db2023-03-13T07:31:25ZrusDon State Technical UniversityAdvanced Engineering Research2687-16532014-09-01143132010.12737/5695319ON CORRECTNESS OF BAYES FORMULAAlexander Ivanovich Dolgov0Открытое акционерное общество «Конструкторское бюро по радиоконтролю систем управления, навигации и связи» (OAO «КБ „Связь“»), РоссияThe inadmissibility of the comparison and cooperative processing of the conditional probabilities calculated with the use of the known variations of Bayes formula considering a well-defined amount of the accumulated evidences is established. This statement is justified as follows. Due to the unequal normalization, the results leading to the conclusions mismatching the probability-theoretical law are obtained. The examples of the concrete initial data show that in the case of using the traditional formulas, the multiplicative effect is missing: reducing the posteriori conditional probabilities of each of the hypotheses under the multiplicative accumulating evidences is unfeasible. The Bayesian formula modifications are offered. They provide a well-defined quantity of sequentially accumulated evidences constructed through the common divisor which is equal to the sum of the values of all normalizable probabilities liable to comparison or cooperative processing. In contrast to the well-known formulas, due to the correct normalization, the results significantly more adequate to the initial statistics are obtained.https://www.vestnik-donstu.ru/jour/article/view/326условные вероятностигипотезынакопленные и накапливаемые свидетельстванормирование. |
| spellingShingle | Alexander Ivanovich Dolgov ON CORRECTNESS OF BAYES FORMULA Advanced Engineering Research условные вероятности гипотезы накопленные и накапливаемые свидетельства нормирование. |
| title | ON CORRECTNESS OF BAYES FORMULA |
| title_full | ON CORRECTNESS OF BAYES FORMULA |
| title_fullStr | ON CORRECTNESS OF BAYES FORMULA |
| title_full_unstemmed | ON CORRECTNESS OF BAYES FORMULA |
| title_short | ON CORRECTNESS OF BAYES FORMULA |
| title_sort | on correctness of bayes formula |
| topic | условные вероятности гипотезы накопленные и накапливаемые свидетельства нормирование. |
| url | https://www.vestnik-donstu.ru/jour/article/view/326 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alexanderivanovichdolgov oncorrectnessofbayesformula |