Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker.
A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players,...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2015-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115479 |
| _version_ | 1819108559522103296 |
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| author | Rogier J D Potter van Loon Martijn J van den Assem Dennie van Dolder |
| author_facet | Rogier J D Potter van Loon Martijn J van den Assem Dennie van Dolder |
| author_sort | Rogier J D Potter van Loon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T03:11:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0233676e212a4dcbbe40e905ca07772e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T03:11:51Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-0233676e212a4dcbbe40e905ca07772e2022-12-21T18:40:55ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032015-01-01103e011547910.1371/journal.pone.0115479Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker.Rogier J D Potter van LoonMartijn J van den AssemDennie van DolderA major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115479 |
| spellingShingle | Rogier J D Potter van Loon Martijn J van den Assem Dennie van Dolder Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker. PLoS ONE |
| title | Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker. |
| title_full | Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker. |
| title_fullStr | Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker. |
| title_short | Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker. |
| title_sort | beyond chance the persistence of performance in online poker |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115479 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rogierjdpottervanloon beyondchancethepersistenceofperformanceinonlinepoker AT martijnjvandenassem beyondchancethepersistenceofperformanceinonlinepoker AT dennievandolder beyondchancethepersistenceofperformanceinonlinepoker |