Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level
This study assesses the flood characteristics (timing, magnitude and frequency) in the pre-industrial and historical periods, and analyzes climate change impacts on floods at the warming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level in four large river basins as required by the Paris a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b |
| _version_ | 1797748182121185280 |
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| author | Shaochun Huang Rohini Kumar Oldrich Rakovec Valentin Aich Xiaoyan Wang Luis Samaniego Stefan Liersch Valentina Krysanova |
| author_facet | Shaochun Huang Rohini Kumar Oldrich Rakovec Valentin Aich Xiaoyan Wang Luis Samaniego Stefan Liersch Valentina Krysanova |
| author_sort | Shaochun Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study assesses the flood characteristics (timing, magnitude and frequency) in the pre-industrial and historical periods, and analyzes climate change impacts on floods at the warming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level in four large river basins as required by the Paris agreement. Three well-established hydrological models (HMs) were forced with bias-corrected outputs from four global climate models (GCMs) for the pre-industrial, historical and future periods until 2100. The long pre-industrial and historical periods were subdivided into multiple 31-year subperiods to investigate the natural variability. The mean flood characteristics in the pre-industrial period were derived from the large ensemble based on all GCMs, HMs and 31-year subperiods, and compared to the ensemble means in the historical and future periods. In general, the variance of simulated flood characteristics is quite large in the pre-industrial and historical periods. Mostly GCMs and HMs contribute to the variance, especially for flood timing and magnitude, while the selection of 31-year subperiods is an important source of variance for flood frequency. The comparison between the ensemble means shows that there are already some changes in flood characteristics between the pre-industrial and historical periods. There is a clear shift towards earlier flooding for the Rhine (1.5 K scenario) and Upper Mississippi (3.0 K scenario). The flood magnitudes show a substantial increase in the Rhine and Upper Yellow only under the 3.0 K scenario. The floods are projected to occur more frequently in the Rhine under the 1.5 and 2.0 K scenarios, and less frequently in the Upper Mississippi under all scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-023d045018c745a88ca3a53b5603e1e1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:12Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-023d045018c745a88ca3a53b5603e1e12023-08-09T14:36:14ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-01131212400510.1088/1748-9326/aae94bMultimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial levelShaochun Huang0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7426-5181Rohini Kumar1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4396-2037Oldrich Rakovec2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2451-3305Valentin Aich3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3699-3775Xiaoyan Wang4Luis Samaniego5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8449-4428Stefan Liersch6https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2778-3861Valentina Krysanova7Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Oslo, Norway; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyUFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, GermanyUFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany; Czech University of Life Sciences , Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Prague, CzechiaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, SwitzerlandState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Center for Global Change and Water Cycle, Hohai University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaUFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyThis study assesses the flood characteristics (timing, magnitude and frequency) in the pre-industrial and historical periods, and analyzes climate change impacts on floods at the warming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level in four large river basins as required by the Paris agreement. Three well-established hydrological models (HMs) were forced with bias-corrected outputs from four global climate models (GCMs) for the pre-industrial, historical and future periods until 2100. The long pre-industrial and historical periods were subdivided into multiple 31-year subperiods to investigate the natural variability. The mean flood characteristics in the pre-industrial period were derived from the large ensemble based on all GCMs, HMs and 31-year subperiods, and compared to the ensemble means in the historical and future periods. In general, the variance of simulated flood characteristics is quite large in the pre-industrial and historical periods. Mostly GCMs and HMs contribute to the variance, especially for flood timing and magnitude, while the selection of 31-year subperiods is an important source of variance for flood frequency. The comparison between the ensemble means shows that there are already some changes in flood characteristics between the pre-industrial and historical periods. There is a clear shift towards earlier flooding for the Rhine (1.5 K scenario) and Upper Mississippi (3.0 K scenario). The flood magnitudes show a substantial increase in the Rhine and Upper Yellow only under the 3.0 K scenario. The floods are projected to occur more frequently in the Rhine under the 1.5 and 2.0 K scenarios, and less frequently in the Upper Mississippi under all scenarios.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae94bflood timing100 year floodsflood frequencyclimate changeCMIP5-GCMsmulti-model ensemble |
| spellingShingle | Shaochun Huang Rohini Kumar Oldrich Rakovec Valentin Aich Xiaoyan Wang Luis Samaniego Stefan Liersch Valentina Krysanova Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level Environmental Research Letters flood timing 100 year floods flood frequency climate change CMIP5-GCMs multi-model ensemble |
| title | Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level |
| title_full | Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level |
| title_fullStr | Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level |
| title_short | Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level |
| title_sort | multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1 5 2 0 and 3 0 k above the pre industrial level |
| topic | flood timing 100 year floods flood frequency climate change CMIP5-GCMs multi-model ensemble |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b |
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