High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022)
Four-dimensional COAMPS Dynamic Initialization (FCDI) analyses that include high-temporal- and high-spatial-resolution GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) datasets are utilized to understand and predict why pre-Bonnie (2022), designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC 2), did not undergo ra...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/353 |
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| author | Russell L. Elsberry Joel W. Feldmeier Hway-Jen Chen Christopher S. Velden Hsiao-Chung Tsai |
| author_facet | Russell L. Elsberry Joel W. Feldmeier Hway-Jen Chen Christopher S. Velden Hsiao-Chung Tsai |
| author_sort | Russell L. Elsberry |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Four-dimensional COAMPS Dynamic Initialization (FCDI) analyses that include high-temporal- and high-spatial-resolution GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) datasets are utilized to understand and predict why pre-Bonnie (2022), designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC 2), did not undergo rapid intensification (RI) while passing along the coast of Venezuela during late June 2022. A tropical cyclone lifecycle-prediction model based on the ECMWF ensemble indicated that no RI should be expected for the trifurcation southern cluster of tracks along the coast, similar to PTC 2, but would likely occur for two other track clusters farther offshore. Displaying the GOES-16 mesodomain AMVs in 50 mb layers illustrates the outflow burst domes associated with the PTC 2 circulation well. The FCDI analyses forced by thousands of AMVs every 15 min document the 13,910 m wind-mass field responses and the subsequent 540 m wind field adjustments in the PTC 2 circulation. The long-lasting outflow burst domes on both 28 June and 29 June were mainly to the north of PTC 2, and the 13,910 m FCDI analyses document conditions over the PTC 2 which were not favorable for an RI event. The 540 m FCDI analyses demonstrated that the intensity was likely less than 35 kt because of the PTC 2 interactions with land. The FCDI analyses and two model forecasts initialized from the FCDI analyses document how the PTC 2 moved offshore to become Tropical Storm Bonnie; however, they reveal another cyclonic circulation farther west along the Venezuelan coast that has some of the characteristics of a Caribbean False Alarm event. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:32:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0244ee8bfd934b458d1a96b6b98a65b8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:32:56Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-0244ee8bfd934b458d1a96b6b98a65b82024-03-27T13:20:47ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-03-0115335310.3390/atmos15030353High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022)Russell L. Elsberry0Joel W. Feldmeier1Hway-Jen Chen2Christopher S. Velden3Hsiao-Chung Tsai4Lyda Hill Institute for Human Resilience, University of Colorado-Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, CO 80918, USADepartment of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943, USADepartment of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943, USAMadison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USADepartment of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University, New Taipei City 251301, TaiwanFour-dimensional COAMPS Dynamic Initialization (FCDI) analyses that include high-temporal- and high-spatial-resolution GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) datasets are utilized to understand and predict why pre-Bonnie (2022), designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC 2), did not undergo rapid intensification (RI) while passing along the coast of Venezuela during late June 2022. A tropical cyclone lifecycle-prediction model based on the ECMWF ensemble indicated that no RI should be expected for the trifurcation southern cluster of tracks along the coast, similar to PTC 2, but would likely occur for two other track clusters farther offshore. Displaying the GOES-16 mesodomain AMVs in 50 mb layers illustrates the outflow burst domes associated with the PTC 2 circulation well. The FCDI analyses forced by thousands of AMVs every 15 min document the 13,910 m wind-mass field responses and the subsequent 540 m wind field adjustments in the PTC 2 circulation. The long-lasting outflow burst domes on both 28 June and 29 June were mainly to the north of PTC 2, and the 13,910 m FCDI analyses document conditions over the PTC 2 which were not favorable for an RI event. The 540 m FCDI analyses demonstrated that the intensity was likely less than 35 kt because of the PTC 2 interactions with land. The FCDI analyses and two model forecasts initialized from the FCDI analyses document how the PTC 2 moved offshore to become Tropical Storm Bonnie; however, they reveal another cyclonic circulation farther west along the Venezuelan coast that has some of the characteristics of a Caribbean False Alarm event.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/353tropical cyclone non-rapid intensificationatmospheric motion vectorsdynamic initialization analysestropical cyclone track predictiontropical cyclone outflow burst dome |
| spellingShingle | Russell L. Elsberry Joel W. Feldmeier Hway-Jen Chen Christopher S. Velden Hsiao-Chung Tsai High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022) Atmosphere tropical cyclone non-rapid intensification atmospheric motion vectors dynamic initialization analyses tropical cyclone track prediction tropical cyclone outflow burst dome |
| title | High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022) |
| title_full | High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022) |
| title_fullStr | High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022) |
| title_full_unstemmed | High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022) |
| title_short | High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022) |
| title_sort | high temporal resolution analyses with goes 16 atmospheric motion vectors of the non rapid intensification of atlantic pre bonnie 2022 |
| topic | tropical cyclone non-rapid intensification atmospheric motion vectors dynamic initialization analyses tropical cyclone track prediction tropical cyclone outflow burst dome |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/353 |
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