Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions
<p>There is a large range of future aerosol emissions scenarios explored in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), with plausible pathways spanning a range of possibilities from large global reductions in emissions by 2050 to moderate global increases over the same period. Diversity in emis...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/11955/2020/acp-20-11955-2020.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>There is a large range of future aerosol emissions scenarios explored
in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), with plausible pathways
spanning a range of possibilities from large global reductions in
emissions by 2050 to moderate global increases over the same
period. Diversity in emissions across the pathways is particularly
large over Asia. Rapid reductions in anthropogenic aerosol and
precursor emissions between the present day and the 2050s lead to
enhanced increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation
relative to scenarios with weak air quality policies. However, the
effects of aerosol reductions do not persist to the end of the 21st
century for precipitation, when instead the response to greenhouse
gases dominates differences across the SSPs. The relative magnitude
and spatial distribution of aerosol changes are particularly important
for South Asian summer monsoon precipitation changes. Precipitation
increases here are initially suppressed in SSPs 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and
5-8.5 relative to SSP1-1.9 when the impact of remote emission
decreases is counteracted by continued increases in South Asian
emissions.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |