Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and Korea
Climate change poses a high risk to grain yields. Maize, rice, and wheat are the three major grain crops in China, Japan, and Korea. Assessing the impacts and risks of climate on the yields of these grain cops is crucial. An economy–climate model (C-D-C model) was established to assess the impacts o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Foods |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/13/6/966 |
| _version_ | 1797241007078637568 |
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| author | Jieming Chou Haofeng Jin Yuan Xu Weixing Zhao Yuanmeng Li Yidan Hao |
| author_facet | Jieming Chou Haofeng Jin Yuan Xu Weixing Zhao Yuanmeng Li Yidan Hao |
| author_sort | Jieming Chou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change poses a high risk to grain yields. Maize, rice, and wheat are the three major grain crops in China, Japan, and Korea. Assessing the impacts and risks of climate on the yields of these grain cops is crucial. An economy–climate model (C-D-C model) was established to assess the impacts of climate factors on the grain yields in different crop areas. The peaks over threshold model based on the generalized Pareto distribution was used to calculate the value at risk and the expected shortfall, which can evaluate the yield risk of different crops. The impact ratio of climate change was employed to estimate the impacts of climate change under different climate scenarios. The main conclusions can be summarized as follows: the impacts of climate factors on grain yields and the risk vary widely across the different regions and crops. Compared to 1991–2020, climate change from 2021 to 2050 exerts positive impacts on rice and wheat, while the negative impacts on maize in the crop areas are significantly affected by climate factors. The impact ratios of climate change are larger in the SSP1-2.6 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios than under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. These findings are useful for targeting grain yields in smaller study areas. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:16:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0292a2d191644158b17f3356ca8b9a76 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2304-8158 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:16:28Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Foods |
| spelling | doaj.art-0292a2d191644158b17f3356ca8b9a762024-03-27T13:41:20ZengMDPI AGFoods2304-81582024-03-0113696610.3390/foods13060966Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and KoreaJieming Chou0Haofeng Jin1Yuan Xu2Weixing Zhao3Yuanmeng Li4Yidan Hao5Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaClimate change poses a high risk to grain yields. Maize, rice, and wheat are the three major grain crops in China, Japan, and Korea. Assessing the impacts and risks of climate on the yields of these grain cops is crucial. An economy–climate model (C-D-C model) was established to assess the impacts of climate factors on the grain yields in different crop areas. The peaks over threshold model based on the generalized Pareto distribution was used to calculate the value at risk and the expected shortfall, which can evaluate the yield risk of different crops. The impact ratio of climate change was employed to estimate the impacts of climate change under different climate scenarios. The main conclusions can be summarized as follows: the impacts of climate factors on grain yields and the risk vary widely across the different regions and crops. Compared to 1991–2020, climate change from 2021 to 2050 exerts positive impacts on rice and wheat, while the negative impacts on maize in the crop areas are significantly affected by climate factors. The impact ratios of climate change are larger in the SSP1-2.6 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios than under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. These findings are useful for targeting grain yields in smaller study areas.https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/13/6/966China, Japan and Koreaclimate changecrop yieldsrisk |
| spellingShingle | Jieming Chou Haofeng Jin Yuan Xu Weixing Zhao Yuanmeng Li Yidan Hao Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and Korea Foods China, Japan and Korea climate change crop yields risk |
| title | Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and Korea |
| title_full | Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and Korea |
| title_fullStr | Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and Korea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and Korea |
| title_short | Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and Korea |
| title_sort | impacts and risk assessments of climate change for the yields of the major grain crops in china japan and korea |
| topic | China, Japan and Korea climate change crop yields risk |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/13/6/966 |
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