A combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of African swine fever on Merry Island
Over the last decade African swine fever virus, one of the most virulent pathogens known to affect pigs, has devastated pork industries and wild pig populations throughout the world. Despite a growing literature on specific aspects of African swine fever transmission dynamics, it remains unclear whi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Epidemics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436522000421 |
| _version_ | 1811183642014121984 |
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| author | Facundo Muñoz David R.J. Pleydell Ferrán Jori |
| author_facet | Facundo Muñoz David R.J. Pleydell Ferrán Jori |
| author_sort | Facundo Muñoz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Over the last decade African swine fever virus, one of the most virulent pathogens known to affect pigs, has devastated pork industries and wild pig populations throughout the world. Despite a growing literature on specific aspects of African swine fever transmission dynamics, it remains unclear which methods and approaches are most effective for controlling the disease during a crisis. As a consequence, an international modelling challenge was organized in which teams analyzed and responded to a stream of data from an in silico outbreak in the fictive country of Merry Island. In response to this outbreak, we developed a modelling approach that aimed to predict the evolution of the epidemic and evaluate the impact of potential control measures. Two independent models were developed: a stochastic mechanistic space–time compartmental model for characterizing the dissemination of the virus among wild boar; and a deterministic probabilistic risk model for quantifying infection probabilities in domestic pig herds. The combined results of these two models provided valuable information for anticipating the main risks of dissemination and maintenance of the virus (speed and direction of African swine fever spread among wild boar populations, pig herds at greatest risk of infection, the size of the epidemic in the short and long terms), for evaluating the impact of different control measures and for providing specific recommendations concerning control interventions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:50:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-02d495d4f7874fd79b2e3542e82ac3bf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1755-4365 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T09:50:19Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj.art-02d495d4f7874fd79b2e3542e82ac3bf2022-12-22T04:30:50ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652022-09-0140100596A combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of African swine fever on Merry IslandFacundo Muñoz0David R.J. Pleydell1Ferrán Jori2CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, F-34398 Montpellier, France; Univ Montpellier, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, France; Correspondence to: Cirad, Campus international de Baillarguet, TA A-117/E (E-203), 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5, France.INRAE, UMR ASTRE, F-34398 Montpellier, France; Univ Montpellier, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, FranceCIRAD, UMR ASTRE, F-34398 Montpellier, France; Univ Montpellier, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, FranceOver the last decade African swine fever virus, one of the most virulent pathogens known to affect pigs, has devastated pork industries and wild pig populations throughout the world. Despite a growing literature on specific aspects of African swine fever transmission dynamics, it remains unclear which methods and approaches are most effective for controlling the disease during a crisis. As a consequence, an international modelling challenge was organized in which teams analyzed and responded to a stream of data from an in silico outbreak in the fictive country of Merry Island. In response to this outbreak, we developed a modelling approach that aimed to predict the evolution of the epidemic and evaluate the impact of potential control measures. Two independent models were developed: a stochastic mechanistic space–time compartmental model for characterizing the dissemination of the virus among wild boar; and a deterministic probabilistic risk model for quantifying infection probabilities in domestic pig herds. The combined results of these two models provided valuable information for anticipating the main risks of dissemination and maintenance of the virus (speed and direction of African swine fever spread among wild boar populations, pig herds at greatest risk of infection, the size of the epidemic in the short and long terms), for evaluating the impact of different control measures and for providing specific recommendations concerning control interventions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436522000421African swine feverEpidemiologyBayesian modellingMarkov chain Monte CarloSynthetic likelihood |
| spellingShingle | Facundo Muñoz David R.J. Pleydell Ferrán Jori A combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of African swine fever on Merry Island Epidemics African swine fever Epidemiology Bayesian modelling Markov chain Monte Carlo Synthetic likelihood |
| title | A combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of African swine fever on Merry Island |
| title_full | A combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of African swine fever on Merry Island |
| title_fullStr | A combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of African swine fever on Merry Island |
| title_full_unstemmed | A combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of African swine fever on Merry Island |
| title_short | A combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of African swine fever on Merry Island |
| title_sort | combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of african swine fever on merry island |
| topic | African swine fever Epidemiology Bayesian modelling Markov chain Monte Carlo Synthetic likelihood |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436522000421 |
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