Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change
<p>Historical time series of surface temperature and ocean heat content changes are commonly used metrics to diagnose climate change and estimate properties of the climate system. We show that recent trends, namely the slowing of surface temperature rise at the beginning of the 21st century an...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018-11-01
|
| Series: | Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography |
| Online Access: | https://www.adv-stat-clim-meteorol-oceanogr.net/4/19/2018/ascmo-4-19-2018.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819275278861467648 |
|---|---|
| author | A. G. Libardoni A. G. Libardoni C. E. Forest C. E. Forest A. P. Sokolov E. Monier E. Monier |
| author_facet | A. G. Libardoni A. G. Libardoni C. E. Forest C. E. Forest A. P. Sokolov E. Monier E. Monier |
| author_sort | A. G. Libardoni |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Historical time series of surface temperature and ocean heat content changes
are commonly used metrics to diagnose climate change and estimate properties
of the climate system. We show that recent trends, namely the slowing of
surface temperature rise at the beginning of the 21st century and the
acceleration of heat stored in the deep ocean, have a substantial impact on
these estimates. Using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System
Model (MESM), we vary three model parameters that influence the behavior of
the climate system: effective climate sensitivity (ECS), the effective ocean
diffusivity of heat anomalies by all mixing processes (<span class="inline-formula"><i>K</i><sub><i>v</i></sub></span>), and the net
anthropogenic aerosol forcing scaling factor. Each model run is compared to
observed changes in decadal mean surface temperature anomalies and the trend
in global mean ocean heat content change to derive a joint probability
distribution function for the model parameters. Marginal distributions for
individual parameters are found by integrating over the other two parameters.
To investigate how the inclusion of recent temperature changes affects our
estimates, we systematically include additional data by choosing periods that
end in 1990, 2000, and 2010. We find that estimates of ECS increase in
response to rising global surface temperatures when data beyond 1990 are
included, but due to the slowdown of surface temperature rise in the early
21st century, estimates when using data up to 2000 are greater than when data
up to 2010 are used. We also show that estimates of <span class="inline-formula"><i>K</i><sub><i>v</i></sub></span> increase in
response to the acceleration of heat stored in the ocean as data beyond 1990
are included. Further, we highlight how including spatial patterns of surface
temperature change modifies the estimates. We show that including latitudinal
structure in the climate change signal impacts properties with spatial
dependence, namely the aerosol forcing pattern, more than properties defined
for the global mean, climate sensitivity, and ocean diffusivity.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T23:21:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-02d69bec18f84f11a79ec4f651cf78a2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2364-3579 2364-3587 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T23:21:47Z |
| publishDate | 2018-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography |
| spelling | doaj.art-02d69bec18f84f11a79ec4f651cf78a22022-12-21T17:26:18ZengCopernicus PublicationsAdvances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography2364-35792364-35872018-11-014193610.5194/ascmo-4-19-2018Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate changeA. G. Libardoni0A. G. Libardoni1C. E. Forest2C. E. Forest3A. P. Sokolov4E. Monier5E. Monier6Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USAnow at: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USADepartment of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USAEarth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USAJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USAJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USAnow at: Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, USA<p>Historical time series of surface temperature and ocean heat content changes are commonly used metrics to diagnose climate change and estimate properties of the climate system. We show that recent trends, namely the slowing of surface temperature rise at the beginning of the 21st century and the acceleration of heat stored in the deep ocean, have a substantial impact on these estimates. Using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model (MESM), we vary three model parameters that influence the behavior of the climate system: effective climate sensitivity (ECS), the effective ocean diffusivity of heat anomalies by all mixing processes (<span class="inline-formula"><i>K</i><sub><i>v</i></sub></span>), and the net anthropogenic aerosol forcing scaling factor. Each model run is compared to observed changes in decadal mean surface temperature anomalies and the trend in global mean ocean heat content change to derive a joint probability distribution function for the model parameters. Marginal distributions for individual parameters are found by integrating over the other two parameters. To investigate how the inclusion of recent temperature changes affects our estimates, we systematically include additional data by choosing periods that end in 1990, 2000, and 2010. We find that estimates of ECS increase in response to rising global surface temperatures when data beyond 1990 are included, but due to the slowdown of surface temperature rise in the early 21st century, estimates when using data up to 2000 are greater than when data up to 2010 are used. We also show that estimates of <span class="inline-formula"><i>K</i><sub><i>v</i></sub></span> increase in response to the acceleration of heat stored in the ocean as data beyond 1990 are included. Further, we highlight how including spatial patterns of surface temperature change modifies the estimates. We show that including latitudinal structure in the climate change signal impacts properties with spatial dependence, namely the aerosol forcing pattern, more than properties defined for the global mean, climate sensitivity, and ocean diffusivity.</p>https://www.adv-stat-clim-meteorol-oceanogr.net/4/19/2018/ascmo-4-19-2018.pdf |
| spellingShingle | A. G. Libardoni A. G. Libardoni C. E. Forest C. E. Forest A. P. Sokolov E. Monier E. Monier Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography |
| title | Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change |
| title_full | Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change |
| title_fullStr | Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change |
| title_short | Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change |
| title_sort | estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change |
| url | https://www.adv-stat-clim-meteorol-oceanogr.net/4/19/2018/ascmo-4-19-2018.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aglibardoni estimatesofclimatesystempropertiesincorporatingrecentclimatechange AT aglibardoni estimatesofclimatesystempropertiesincorporatingrecentclimatechange AT ceforest estimatesofclimatesystempropertiesincorporatingrecentclimatechange AT ceforest estimatesofclimatesystempropertiesincorporatingrecentclimatechange AT apsokolov estimatesofclimatesystempropertiesincorporatingrecentclimatechange AT emonier estimatesofclimatesystempropertiesincorporatingrecentclimatechange AT emonier estimatesofclimatesystempropertiesincorporatingrecentclimatechange |