Steel Arch Support Deformations Forecast Model Based on Grey–Stochastic Simulation and Autoregressive Process
Relatively large deformations of the steel arch support in underground coal mines in the Republic of Serbia present one of the main problems for achieving the planned production of coal. Monitoring of the critical sections of the steel arch support in the underground roadways is necessary to gather...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-04-01
|
| Series: | Applied Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/7/4559 |
| _version_ | 1797608296968880128 |
|---|---|
| author | Luka Crnogorac Suzana Lutovac Rade Tokalić Miloš Gligorić Zoran Gligorić |
| author_facet | Luka Crnogorac Suzana Lutovac Rade Tokalić Miloš Gligorić Zoran Gligorić |
| author_sort | Luka Crnogorac |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Relatively large deformations of the steel arch support in underground coal mines in the Republic of Serbia present one of the main problems for achieving the planned production of coal. Monitoring of the critical sections of the steel arch support in the underground roadways is necessary to gather quality data for the development of a forecasting model. With a new generation of 3D laser scanners that can be used in potentially explosive environments (ATEX), deformation monitoring is facilitated, while the process of collecting precise data is much shorter. In this paper, we used a combination of grey and stochastic system theory combined with an autoregressive process for processing collected data and the development of a forecasting model of the deformations of the steel arch support. Forecasted data accuracy based on the positions of the markers placed along the internal rim of support construction shows high accuracy with MAPE of 0.2143%. The proposed model can successfully be used by mining engineers in underground coal mines for steel arch support deformations prediction, consequentially optimizing the maintenance plan of the underground roadways and achieving planned production. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T05:41:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-031a0304bacb4427bb200a1acecbdcf7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T05:41:30Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-031a0304bacb4427bb200a1acecbdcf72023-11-17T16:22:05ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172023-04-01137455910.3390/app13074559Steel Arch Support Deformations Forecast Model Based on Grey–Stochastic Simulation and Autoregressive ProcessLuka Crnogorac0Suzana Lutovac1Rade Tokalić2Miloš Gligorić3Zoran Gligorić4Faculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, Ðušina 7, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, Ðušina 7, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, Ðušina 7, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, Ðušina 7, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, Ðušina 7, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaRelatively large deformations of the steel arch support in underground coal mines in the Republic of Serbia present one of the main problems for achieving the planned production of coal. Monitoring of the critical sections of the steel arch support in the underground roadways is necessary to gather quality data for the development of a forecasting model. With a new generation of 3D laser scanners that can be used in potentially explosive environments (ATEX), deformation monitoring is facilitated, while the process of collecting precise data is much shorter. In this paper, we used a combination of grey and stochastic system theory combined with an autoregressive process for processing collected data and the development of a forecasting model of the deformations of the steel arch support. Forecasted data accuracy based on the positions of the markers placed along the internal rim of support construction shows high accuracy with MAPE of 0.2143%. The proposed model can successfully be used by mining engineers in underground coal mines for steel arch support deformations prediction, consequentially optimizing the maintenance plan of the underground roadways and achieving planned production.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/7/4559steel arch supportdeformation forecasttime seriesgrey–stochastic simulationautoregressionunderground coal mining |
| spellingShingle | Luka Crnogorac Suzana Lutovac Rade Tokalić Miloš Gligorić Zoran Gligorić Steel Arch Support Deformations Forecast Model Based on Grey–Stochastic Simulation and Autoregressive Process Applied Sciences steel arch support deformation forecast time series grey–stochastic simulation autoregression underground coal mining |
| title | Steel Arch Support Deformations Forecast Model Based on Grey–Stochastic Simulation and Autoregressive Process |
| title_full | Steel Arch Support Deformations Forecast Model Based on Grey–Stochastic Simulation and Autoregressive Process |
| title_fullStr | Steel Arch Support Deformations Forecast Model Based on Grey–Stochastic Simulation and Autoregressive Process |
| title_full_unstemmed | Steel Arch Support Deformations Forecast Model Based on Grey–Stochastic Simulation and Autoregressive Process |
| title_short | Steel Arch Support Deformations Forecast Model Based on Grey–Stochastic Simulation and Autoregressive Process |
| title_sort | steel arch support deformations forecast model based on grey stochastic simulation and autoregressive process |
| topic | steel arch support deformation forecast time series grey–stochastic simulation autoregression underground coal mining |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/7/4559 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lukacrnogorac steelarchsupportdeformationsforecastmodelbasedongreystochasticsimulationandautoregressiveprocess AT suzanalutovac steelarchsupportdeformationsforecastmodelbasedongreystochasticsimulationandautoregressiveprocess AT radetokalic steelarchsupportdeformationsforecastmodelbasedongreystochasticsimulationandautoregressiveprocess AT milosgligoric steelarchsupportdeformationsforecastmodelbasedongreystochasticsimulationandautoregressiveprocess AT zorangligoric steelarchsupportdeformationsforecastmodelbasedongreystochasticsimulationandautoregressiveprocess |