| Summary: | To understand the impact of keeping Nord Stream 2 off the map, we model the European natural gas market from the point of view of supply security. Focusing on the network aspects, we propose a novel framework to measure supply security, combining a linear programming approach with a risk assessment technique, expected shortfall (ES) borrowed from finance, particularly suited to measure extreme risk, such as the risk of failing pipelines.Shifting Russian gas exports from Ukraine to Nord Stream 2 increases risks for South-Eastern Europe, and the Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic Pipelines can only partially alleviate these changes.
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