Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose
Abstract Following initial optimism regarding potentially rapid vaccination, delays and shortages in vaccine supplies occurred in many countries during spring 2021. Various strategies to counter this gloomy reality and speed up vaccination have been set forth, of which the most popular has been to d...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11250-4 |
| _version_ | 1818210307979345920 |
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| author | Luděk Berec René Levínský Jakub Weiner Martin Šmíd Roman Neruda Petra Vidnerová Gabriela Suchopárová |
| author_facet | Luděk Berec René Levínský Jakub Weiner Martin Šmíd Roman Neruda Petra Vidnerová Gabriela Suchopárová |
| author_sort | Luděk Berec |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Following initial optimism regarding potentially rapid vaccination, delays and shortages in vaccine supplies occurred in many countries during spring 2021. Various strategies to counter this gloomy reality and speed up vaccination have been set forth, of which the most popular has been to delay the second vaccine dose for a longer period than originally recommended by the manufacturers. Controversy has surrounded this strategy, and overly simplistic models have been developed to shed light on this issue. Here we use three different epidemic models, all accounting for then actual COVID-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic, including the real vaccination rollout, to explore when delaying the second vaccine dose by another 3 weeks from 21 to 42 days is advantageous. Using COVID-19-related deaths as a quantity to compare various model scenarios, we find that the way of vaccine action at the beginning of the infection course (preventing infection and symptoms appearance), mild epidemic and sufficient vaccine supply rate call for the original inter-dose period of 21 days regardless of vaccine efficacy. On the contrary, for the vaccine action at the end of infection course (preventing severe symptoms and death), severe epidemic and low vaccine supply rate, the 42-day inter-dose period is preferable, at any plausible vaccine efficacy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T05:14:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0333894cecae4714931997e020ee34e8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T05:14:32Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-0333894cecae4714931997e020ee34e82022-12-22T00:36:49ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-05-0112111210.1038/s41598-022-11250-4Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine doseLuděk Berec0René Levínský1Jakub Weiner2Martin Šmíd3Roman Neruda4Petra Vidnerová5Gabriela Suchopárová6Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of South BohemiaCERGE-EISiesta LabsThe Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Information Theory and AutomationThe Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Computer ScienceThe Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Computer ScienceThe Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Computer ScienceAbstract Following initial optimism regarding potentially rapid vaccination, delays and shortages in vaccine supplies occurred in many countries during spring 2021. Various strategies to counter this gloomy reality and speed up vaccination have been set forth, of which the most popular has been to delay the second vaccine dose for a longer period than originally recommended by the manufacturers. Controversy has surrounded this strategy, and overly simplistic models have been developed to shed light on this issue. Here we use three different epidemic models, all accounting for then actual COVID-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic, including the real vaccination rollout, to explore when delaying the second vaccine dose by another 3 weeks from 21 to 42 days is advantageous. Using COVID-19-related deaths as a quantity to compare various model scenarios, we find that the way of vaccine action at the beginning of the infection course (preventing infection and symptoms appearance), mild epidemic and sufficient vaccine supply rate call for the original inter-dose period of 21 days regardless of vaccine efficacy. On the contrary, for the vaccine action at the end of infection course (preventing severe symptoms and death), severe epidemic and low vaccine supply rate, the 42-day inter-dose period is preferable, at any plausible vaccine efficacy.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11250-4 |
| spellingShingle | Luděk Berec René Levínský Jakub Weiner Martin Šmíd Roman Neruda Petra Vidnerová Gabriela Suchopárová Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose Scientific Reports |
| title | Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose |
| title_full | Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose |
| title_fullStr | Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose |
| title_full_unstemmed | Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose |
| title_short | Importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose |
| title_sort | importance of vaccine action and availability and epidemic severity for delaying the second vaccine dose |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11250-4 |
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