The demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods
Background: Meeting demand for family planning can facilitate progress towards all major themes of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): people, planet, prosperity, peace, and partnership. Many policymakers have embraced a benchmark goal that at least 75% of the demand for family...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Global Health Action |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16549716.2018.1423861 |
| _version_ | 1828541643786027008 |
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| author | Daniel Goodkind Lisa Lollock Yoonjoung Choi Thomas McDevitt Loraine West |
| author_facet | Daniel Goodkind Lisa Lollock Yoonjoung Choi Thomas McDevitt Loraine West |
| author_sort | Daniel Goodkind |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Meeting demand for family planning can facilitate progress towards all major themes of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): people, planet, prosperity, peace, and partnership. Many policymakers have embraced a benchmark goal that at least 75% of the demand for family planning in all countries be satisfied with modern contraceptive methods by the year 2030. Objective: This study examines the demographic impact (and development implications) of achieving the 75% benchmark in 13 developing countries that are expected to be the furthest from achieving that benchmark. Methods: Estimation of the demographic impact of achieving the 75% benchmark requires three steps in each country: 1) translate contraceptive prevalence assumptions (with and without intervention) into future fertility levels based on biometric models, 2) incorporate each pair of fertility assumptions into separate population projections, and 3) compare the demographic differences between the two population projections. Data are drawn from the United Nations, the US Census Bureau, and Demographic and Health Surveys. Results: The demographic impact of meeting the 75% benchmark is examined via projected differences in fertility rates (average expected births per woman’s reproductive lifetime), total population, growth rates, age structure, and youth dependency. On average, meeting the benchmark would imply a 16 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive prevalence by 2030 and a 20% decline in youth dependency, which portends a potential demographic dividend to spur economic growth. Conclusions: Improvements in meeting the demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods can bring substantial benefits to developing countries. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show formally how such improvements can alter population size and age structure. Declines in youth dependency portend a demographic dividend, an added bonus to the already well-known benefits of meeting existing demands for family planning. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T01:44:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-034421e49cdc4e4f8d2ed5d7de3b8af3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1654-9716 1654-9880 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T01:44:05Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Health Action |
| spelling | doaj.art-034421e49cdc4e4f8d2ed5d7de3b8af32022-12-22T00:42:38ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGlobal Health Action1654-97161654-98802018-01-0111110.1080/16549716.2018.14238611423861The demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methodsDaniel Goodkind0Lisa Lollock1Yoonjoung Choi2Thomas McDevitt3Loraine West4U.S. Census Bureau, Population DivisionU.S. Census Bureau, Population DivisionJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthIndependent ResearcherU.S. Census Bureau, Population DivisionBackground: Meeting demand for family planning can facilitate progress towards all major themes of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): people, planet, prosperity, peace, and partnership. Many policymakers have embraced a benchmark goal that at least 75% of the demand for family planning in all countries be satisfied with modern contraceptive methods by the year 2030. Objective: This study examines the demographic impact (and development implications) of achieving the 75% benchmark in 13 developing countries that are expected to be the furthest from achieving that benchmark. Methods: Estimation of the demographic impact of achieving the 75% benchmark requires three steps in each country: 1) translate contraceptive prevalence assumptions (with and without intervention) into future fertility levels based on biometric models, 2) incorporate each pair of fertility assumptions into separate population projections, and 3) compare the demographic differences between the two population projections. Data are drawn from the United Nations, the US Census Bureau, and Demographic and Health Surveys. Results: The demographic impact of meeting the 75% benchmark is examined via projected differences in fertility rates (average expected births per woman’s reproductive lifetime), total population, growth rates, age structure, and youth dependency. On average, meeting the benchmark would imply a 16 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive prevalence by 2030 and a 20% decline in youth dependency, which portends a potential demographic dividend to spur economic growth. Conclusions: Improvements in meeting the demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods can bring substantial benefits to developing countries. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show formally how such improvements can alter population size and age structure. Declines in youth dependency portend a demographic dividend, an added bonus to the already well-known benefits of meeting existing demands for family planning.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16549716.2018.1423861Demographic dividendUnited Nations SDGs (sustainable development goals)reproductive healthbiometric modelspopulation projectionssub-Saharan Africa |
| spellingShingle | Daniel Goodkind Lisa Lollock Yoonjoung Choi Thomas McDevitt Loraine West The demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods Global Health Action Demographic dividend United Nations SDGs (sustainable development goals) reproductive health biometric models population projections sub-Saharan Africa |
| title | The demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods |
| title_full | The demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods |
| title_fullStr | The demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods |
| title_full_unstemmed | The demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods |
| title_short | The demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods |
| title_sort | demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods |
| topic | Demographic dividend United Nations SDGs (sustainable development goals) reproductive health biometric models population projections sub-Saharan Africa |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16549716.2018.1423861 |
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