Regression discontinuity threshold optimization.
Treatments often come with thresholds, e.g. we are given statins if our cholesterol is above a certain threshold. But which statin administration threshold maximizes our quality of life adjusted years? More generally, which threshold would optimize the average expected outcome? Regression discontinu...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276755 |
| _version_ | 1797987032614567936 |
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| author | Ioana Marinescu Sofia Triantafillou Konrad Kording |
| author_facet | Ioana Marinescu Sofia Triantafillou Konrad Kording |
| author_sort | Ioana Marinescu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Treatments often come with thresholds, e.g. we are given statins if our cholesterol is above a certain threshold. But which statin administration threshold maximizes our quality of life adjusted years? More generally, which threshold would optimize the average expected outcome? Regression discontinuity approaches are used to measure the local average treatment effect (LATE) and more recently also the Marginal Threshold Treatment Effect (MTTE), which shows how marginal changes in the threshold can affect the LATE. We extend this idea to define the problem of optimizing a policy threshold, i.e. selecting a threshold that optimizes the cumulative effect of the treatment on the treated. We present an estimator of the optimal threshold based on a constrained optimization framework. We show how to use machine learning (Gaussian process regression) for non-linear estimation. We also extend the estimation to a conservative threshold that is unlikely to produce harm, and we show how to include policy cost constraints. We apply these results to estimate an optimal tip-maximizing threshold for tip suggestions in taxi cabs Haggag (2014). |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T07:42:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-035bfe37540943b681eeadb46beb5770 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T07:42:27Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-035bfe37540943b681eeadb46beb57702022-12-22T04:36:27ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-011711e027675510.1371/journal.pone.0276755Regression discontinuity threshold optimization.Ioana MarinescuSofia TriantafillouKonrad KordingTreatments often come with thresholds, e.g. we are given statins if our cholesterol is above a certain threshold. But which statin administration threshold maximizes our quality of life adjusted years? More generally, which threshold would optimize the average expected outcome? Regression discontinuity approaches are used to measure the local average treatment effect (LATE) and more recently also the Marginal Threshold Treatment Effect (MTTE), which shows how marginal changes in the threshold can affect the LATE. We extend this idea to define the problem of optimizing a policy threshold, i.e. selecting a threshold that optimizes the cumulative effect of the treatment on the treated. We present an estimator of the optimal threshold based on a constrained optimization framework. We show how to use machine learning (Gaussian process regression) for non-linear estimation. We also extend the estimation to a conservative threshold that is unlikely to produce harm, and we show how to include policy cost constraints. We apply these results to estimate an optimal tip-maximizing threshold for tip suggestions in taxi cabs Haggag (2014).https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276755 |
| spellingShingle | Ioana Marinescu Sofia Triantafillou Konrad Kording Regression discontinuity threshold optimization. PLoS ONE |
| title | Regression discontinuity threshold optimization. |
| title_full | Regression discontinuity threshold optimization. |
| title_fullStr | Regression discontinuity threshold optimization. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regression discontinuity threshold optimization. |
| title_short | Regression discontinuity threshold optimization. |
| title_sort | regression discontinuity threshold optimization |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276755 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ioanamarinescu regressiondiscontinuitythresholdoptimization AT sofiatriantafillou regressiondiscontinuitythresholdoptimization AT konradkording regressiondiscontinuitythresholdoptimization |