Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain)
The effective and efficient planning of rural land-use changes and their impact on the environment is critical for land-use managers. Many land-use growth models have been proposed for forecasting growth patterns in the last few years. In this work; a cellular automata (CA)-based land-use model (Met...
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MDPI AG
2020-07-01
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| Series: | ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/9/7/458 |
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| author | Rafael M. Navarro Cerrillo Guillermo Palacios Rodríguez Inmaculada Clavero Rumbao Miguel Ángel Lara Francisco Javier Bonet Francisco-Javier Mesas-Carrascosa |
| author_facet | Rafael M. Navarro Cerrillo Guillermo Palacios Rodríguez Inmaculada Clavero Rumbao Miguel Ángel Lara Francisco Javier Bonet Francisco-Javier Mesas-Carrascosa |
| author_sort | Rafael M. Navarro Cerrillo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The effective and efficient planning of rural land-use changes and their impact on the environment is critical for land-use managers. Many land-use growth models have been proposed for forecasting growth patterns in the last few years. In this work; a cellular automata (CA)-based land-use model (Metronamica) was tested to simulate (1999–2007) and predict (2007–2035) land-use dynamics and land-use changes in Andalucía (Spain). The model was calibrated using temporal changes in land-use covers and was evaluated by the Kappa index. GIS-based maps were generated to study major rural land-use changes (agriculture and forests). The change matrix for 1999–2007 showed an overall area change of 674971 ha. The dominant land uses in 2007 were shrubs (30.7%), woody crops on dry land (17.3%), and herbaceous crops on dry land (12.7%). The comparison between the reference and the simulated land-use maps of 2007 showed a Kappa index of 0.91. The land-cover map for the projected PRELUDE scenarios provided the land-cover characteristics of 2035 in Andalusia; developed within the Metronamica model scenarios (Great Escape; Evolved Society; Clustered Network; Lettuce Surprise U; and Big Crisis). The greatest differences were found between Great Escape and Clustered Network and Lettuce Surprise U. The observed trend (1999–2007–2035) showed the greatest similarity with the Big Crisis scenario. Land-use projections facilitate the understanding of the future dynamics of land-use change in rural areas; and hence the development of more appropriate plans and policies |
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| issn | 2220-9964 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:20:26Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
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| series | ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information |
| spelling | doaj.art-036cb63678aa4a7694fdf5519e2e11e12023-11-20T07:21:33ZengMDPI AGISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information2220-99642020-07-019745810.3390/ijgi9070458Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain)Rafael M. Navarro Cerrillo0Guillermo Palacios Rodríguez1Inmaculada Clavero Rumbao2Miguel Ángel Lara3Francisco Javier Bonet4Francisco-Javier Mesas-Carrascosa5Department of Forestry Engineering, Laboratory of Silviculture, Dendrochronology and Climate Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, Instituto Interuniversitario de Investigación del Sistema Tierra de Andalucía (IISTA), University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta.IV, km. 396, E-14071 Córdoba, SpainDepartment of Forestry Engineering, Laboratory of Silviculture, Dendrochronology and Climate Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, Instituto Interuniversitario de Investigación del Sistema Tierra de Andalucía (IISTA), University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta.IV, km. 396, E-14071 Córdoba, SpainDepartment of Forestry Engineering, Laboratory of Silviculture, Dendrochronology and Climate Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, Instituto Interuniversitario de Investigación del Sistema Tierra de Andalucía (IISTA), University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta.IV, km. 396, E-14071 Córdoba, SpainDepartment of Forestry Engineering, Laboratory of Silviculture, Dendrochronology and Climate Change, DendrodatLab-ERSAF, Instituto Interuniversitario de Investigación del Sistema Tierra de Andalucía (IISTA), University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta.IV, km. 396, E-14071 Córdoba, SpainDepartment of Ecology, University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta.IV, km. 396, E-14071 Córdoba, SpainDepartment of Graphic Engineering and Geomatics, University of Cordoba, Campus de Rabanales, Crta.IV, km. 396, E-14071 Córdoba, SpainThe effective and efficient planning of rural land-use changes and their impact on the environment is critical for land-use managers. Many land-use growth models have been proposed for forecasting growth patterns in the last few years. In this work; a cellular automata (CA)-based land-use model (Metronamica) was tested to simulate (1999–2007) and predict (2007–2035) land-use dynamics and land-use changes in Andalucía (Spain). The model was calibrated using temporal changes in land-use covers and was evaluated by the Kappa index. GIS-based maps were generated to study major rural land-use changes (agriculture and forests). The change matrix for 1999–2007 showed an overall area change of 674971 ha. The dominant land uses in 2007 were shrubs (30.7%), woody crops on dry land (17.3%), and herbaceous crops on dry land (12.7%). The comparison between the reference and the simulated land-use maps of 2007 showed a Kappa index of 0.91. The land-cover map for the projected PRELUDE scenarios provided the land-cover characteristics of 2035 in Andalusia; developed within the Metronamica model scenarios (Great Escape; Evolved Society; Clustered Network; Lettuce Surprise U; and Big Crisis). The greatest differences were found between Great Escape and Clustered Network and Lettuce Surprise U. The observed trend (1999–2007–2035) showed the greatest similarity with the Big Crisis scenario. Land-use projections facilitate the understanding of the future dynamics of land-use change in rural areas; and hence the development of more appropriate plans and policieshttps://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/9/7/458future scenariospreludedynamic of land useSpatial Decision Support System, CORINE Land Cover |
| spellingShingle | Rafael M. Navarro Cerrillo Guillermo Palacios Rodríguez Inmaculada Clavero Rumbao Miguel Ángel Lara Francisco Javier Bonet Francisco-Javier Mesas-Carrascosa Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain) ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information future scenarios prelude dynamic of land use Spatial Decision Support System, CORINE Land Cover |
| title | Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain) |
| title_full | Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain) |
| title_fullStr | Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain) |
| title_short | Modeling Major Rural Land-Use Changes Using the GIS-Based Cellular Automata Metronamica Model: The Case of Andalusia (Southern Spain) |
| title_sort | modeling major rural land use changes using the gis based cellular automata metronamica model the case of andalusia southern spain |
| topic | future scenarios prelude dynamic of land use Spatial Decision Support System, CORINE Land Cover |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/9/7/458 |
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