Research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on BASS model: A case study of Yunnan Province
In order to forecast the number of electric vehicles in Yunnan Province, based on BASS model, this paper uses extensive analogy method to explore the acquisition of m, p and q model parameters, forecasts the purchasing power of the market, and estimates the innovation coefficient and imitation coeff...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
EDP Sciences
2021-01-01
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| Series: | E3S Web of Conferences |
| Online Access: | https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/69/e3sconf_gceece2021_03032.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818922730041376768 |
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| author | Su Shi Jiang Jiaxin Yin Chunlin Hu Jian Li Ting Ye Xun Zhang QiangJian Ma Weiyun Liu Siyang |
| author_facet | Su Shi Jiang Jiaxin Yin Chunlin Hu Jian Li Ting Ye Xun Zhang QiangJian Ma Weiyun Liu Siyang |
| author_sort | Su Shi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In order to forecast the number of electric vehicles in Yunnan Province, based on BASS model, this paper uses extensive analogy method to explore the acquisition of m, p and q model parameters, forecasts the purchasing power of the market, and estimates the innovation coefficient and imitation coefficient from three aspects of high potential scenario, base potential scenario and low potential scenario. The number of new energy electric vehicles in Yunnan Province in three scenarios from 2022 to 2035 is predicted. The forecast results show that under the condition of high potential development, the number of new energy vehicles in Yunnan Province will reach 409,600 in 2022; in the case of benchmark potential development, the number of new energy vehicles will reach 291,400 in 2022; in the case of low potential development, the number of new energy vehicles in Yunnan Province will reach 155,400 in 2022. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T01:58:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-039f0ff890d54ff68f2031c6867ce217 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2267-1242 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T01:58:11Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | E3S Web of Conferences |
| spelling | doaj.art-039f0ff890d54ff68f2031c6867ce2172022-12-21T19:57:26ZengEDP SciencesE3S Web of Conferences2267-12422021-01-012930303210.1051/e3sconf/202129303032e3sconf_gceece2021_03032Research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on BASS model: A case study of Yunnan ProvinceSu Shi0Jiang Jiaxin1Yin Chunlin2Hu Jian3Li Ting4Ye Xun5Zhang QiangJian6Ma Weiyun7Liu Siyang8Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd.Key Laboratory in Software Engineering of Yunnan Province, School of Software, Yunnan UniversityElectric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd.Information Center,Yunnan Power Grid Co., LtdKunming Enersun Technology Co., LtdKey Laboratory in Software Engineering of Yunnan Province, School of Software, Yunnan UniversityKey Laboratory in Software Engineering of Yunnan Province, School of Software, Yunnan UniversityKey Laboratory in Software Engineering of Yunnan Province, School of Software, Yunnan UniversityElectric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd.In order to forecast the number of electric vehicles in Yunnan Province, based on BASS model, this paper uses extensive analogy method to explore the acquisition of m, p and q model parameters, forecasts the purchasing power of the market, and estimates the innovation coefficient and imitation coefficient from three aspects of high potential scenario, base potential scenario and low potential scenario. The number of new energy electric vehicles in Yunnan Province in three scenarios from 2022 to 2035 is predicted. The forecast results show that under the condition of high potential development, the number of new energy vehicles in Yunnan Province will reach 409,600 in 2022; in the case of benchmark potential development, the number of new energy vehicles will reach 291,400 in 2022; in the case of low potential development, the number of new energy vehicles in Yunnan Province will reach 155,400 in 2022.https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/69/e3sconf_gceece2021_03032.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Su Shi Jiang Jiaxin Yin Chunlin Hu Jian Li Ting Ye Xun Zhang QiangJian Ma Weiyun Liu Siyang Research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on BASS model: A case study of Yunnan Province E3S Web of Conferences |
| title | Research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on BASS model: A case study of Yunnan Province |
| title_full | Research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on BASS model: A case study of Yunnan Province |
| title_fullStr | Research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on BASS model: A case study of Yunnan Province |
| title_full_unstemmed | Research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on BASS model: A case study of Yunnan Province |
| title_short | Research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on BASS model: A case study of Yunnan Province |
| title_sort | research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on bass model a case study of yunnan province |
| url | https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/69/e3sconf_gceece2021_03032.pdf |
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