Development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in Chinese males: A prospective cohort study
Abstract To build a simple predictive model as a guide to stratify average‐risk population for colonoscopy examinations. We collected data from 92 923 males without a prior history of cancer enrolled in the Kailuan Cohort Study of China. Risk factors included in the evaluation of colorectal cancer (...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Cancer Medicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.2734 |
| _version_ | 1818682914485829632 |
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| author | Lanwei Guo Hongda Chen Gang Wang Zhangyan Lyu Xiaoshuang Feng Luopei Wei Xin Li Yan Wen Ming Lu Yuheng Chen Jufang Shi Jiansong Ren Chunqing Lin Xinyang Yu Shuohua Chen Shouling Wu Ni Li Min Dai Jie He |
| author_facet | Lanwei Guo Hongda Chen Gang Wang Zhangyan Lyu Xiaoshuang Feng Luopei Wei Xin Li Yan Wen Ming Lu Yuheng Chen Jufang Shi Jiansong Ren Chunqing Lin Xinyang Yu Shuohua Chen Shouling Wu Ni Li Min Dai Jie He |
| author_sort | Lanwei Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract To build a simple predictive model as a guide to stratify average‐risk population for colonoscopy examinations. We collected data from 92 923 males without a prior history of cancer enrolled in the Kailuan Cohort Study of China. Risk factors included in the evaluation of colorectal cancer (CRC) were collected by questionnaire‐based interviews at the baseline. Logistic regression coefficients for incident CRC predictors were converted into risk scores by the absolute value of the smallest coefficient in the model and rounding up to the nearest integer. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation method was applied to evaluate model performance. In the 10‐year follow‐up, 353 CRC patients were in the cohort. Age, alcohol consumption, waist circumference, occupational sitting time, and history of diabetes were selected for the scoring system, and the adjusted area under the ROC was 0.66. Population in the highest risk group (16‐19 points) had a 33.12‐fold (95% CI: 13.44‐81.59) higher risk of CRC than those in the lowest risk group. When we defined 13 points as the cut‐off, the sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system for CRC were 67.99% and 62.42%, respectively. A simple scoring system for CRC has been developed to identify men at an increased relative risk of CRC within 10 years using several well‐established risk factors, which allows selection of asymptomatic candidates for priority of CRC screening and saving the health resource in cancer prevention and control. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T10:26:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-03e11005e6d34d34877833a75025ed53 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7634 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T10:26:25Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cancer Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-03e11005e6d34d34877833a75025ed532022-12-21T21:52:39ZengWileyCancer Medicine2045-76342020-01-019281682310.1002/cam4.2734Development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in Chinese males: A prospective cohort studyLanwei Guo0Hongda Chen1Gang Wang2Zhangyan Lyu3Xiaoshuang Feng4Luopei Wei5Xin Li6Yan Wen7Ming Lu8Yuheng Chen9Jufang Shi10Jiansong Ren11Chunqing Lin12Xinyang Yu13Shuohua Chen14Shouling Wu15Ni Li16Min Dai17Jie He18Office for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaDepartment of Oncology Kailuan General Hospital Tangshan ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaHealth Department of Kailuan (group) Kailuan General Hospital Tangshan ChinaHealth Department of Kailuan (group) Kailuan General Hospital Tangshan ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaOffice for Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaDepartment of Thoracic Surgery National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing ChinaAbstract To build a simple predictive model as a guide to stratify average‐risk population for colonoscopy examinations. We collected data from 92 923 males without a prior history of cancer enrolled in the Kailuan Cohort Study of China. Risk factors included in the evaluation of colorectal cancer (CRC) were collected by questionnaire‐based interviews at the baseline. Logistic regression coefficients for incident CRC predictors were converted into risk scores by the absolute value of the smallest coefficient in the model and rounding up to the nearest integer. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation method was applied to evaluate model performance. In the 10‐year follow‐up, 353 CRC patients were in the cohort. Age, alcohol consumption, waist circumference, occupational sitting time, and history of diabetes were selected for the scoring system, and the adjusted area under the ROC was 0.66. Population in the highest risk group (16‐19 points) had a 33.12‐fold (95% CI: 13.44‐81.59) higher risk of CRC than those in the lowest risk group. When we defined 13 points as the cut‐off, the sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system for CRC were 67.99% and 62.42%, respectively. A simple scoring system for CRC has been developed to identify men at an increased relative risk of CRC within 10 years using several well‐established risk factors, which allows selection of asymptomatic candidates for priority of CRC screening and saving the health resource in cancer prevention and control.https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.2734Chinacolorectal neoplasmsrisk predictionrisk score |
| spellingShingle | Lanwei Guo Hongda Chen Gang Wang Zhangyan Lyu Xiaoshuang Feng Luopei Wei Xin Li Yan Wen Ming Lu Yuheng Chen Jufang Shi Jiansong Ren Chunqing Lin Xinyang Yu Shuohua Chen Shouling Wu Ni Li Min Dai Jie He Development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in Chinese males: A prospective cohort study Cancer Medicine China colorectal neoplasms risk prediction risk score |
| title | Development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in Chinese males: A prospective cohort study |
| title_full | Development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in Chinese males: A prospective cohort study |
| title_fullStr | Development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in Chinese males: A prospective cohort study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in Chinese males: A prospective cohort study |
| title_short | Development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in Chinese males: A prospective cohort study |
| title_sort | development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in chinese males a prospective cohort study |
| topic | China colorectal neoplasms risk prediction risk score |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.2734 |
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