Climate change projections suggest severe decreases in the geographic ranges of bird species restricted to Mexican humid mountain forests
Climate change-driven modifications in thermal and precipitation patterns can result in shifts in species distributions. Avian species in humid mountain forests (HMF) are among the most vulnerable to these atmospheric changes. In this study, we assessed the extent to which climate change could cause...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2021-10-01
|
| Series: | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989421003449 |
| _version_ | 1818663603225493504 |
|---|---|
| author | Pablo Sierra-Morales Octavio Rojas-Soto César A. Ríos-Muñoz Leticia M. Ochoa-Ochoa Pedro Flores-Rodríguez R. Carlos Almazán-Núñez |
| author_facet | Pablo Sierra-Morales Octavio Rojas-Soto César A. Ríos-Muñoz Leticia M. Ochoa-Ochoa Pedro Flores-Rodríguez R. Carlos Almazán-Núñez |
| author_sort | Pablo Sierra-Morales |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change-driven modifications in thermal and precipitation patterns can result in shifts in species distributions. Avian species in humid mountain forests (HMF) are among the most vulnerable to these atmospheric changes. In this study, we assessed the extent to which climate change could cause distribution shifts in 34 bird species spatially restricted to HMF ecosystems in Mexico. In addition, we analyzed the representation of the species in protected areas (PAs) and the extension these areas covered in the entire range of each species. Species distribution models (SDMs) were generated using Maxent algorithm. Future SDM scenarios were considered using two scenarios: The Interdisciplinary Climate Research Model (MIROC5) and The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) with a single representative concentration pathway (RCP6.0). We found that by 2050, under MIROC5, modeled species distributions showed an average reduction of 34%, and under CCSM4, a decrease of 40%. By 2070, MIROC5 showed an average a reduction of 51% and under CCSM4 of 54%. SDMs for 20 species overlapped with protected areas (PA), although nine species would reduce their presence in the PAs by 2050 under MIROC5 and 11 under CCSM4. By 2070, 11 and 12 species respectively for both scenarios, would reduce their distribution range in the PAs. More than 94% of the bird species considered, have less than 10% of their distribution in PAs in the current and future scenarios. The species distribution models of 14 species, particularly those of small range, showed no overlap with any PA under the current or future scenarios. To ensure that HMF endemic bird species are represented in different protected areas in the future, conservation schemes such as protected social and community areas and biological corridors could be valuable in ensuring the conservation of endemic birds in the long-term, especially in those regions underrepresented by PAs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T05:19:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-03eeb9d82cbc4ee786ce7d7984fa1ab2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2351-9894 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T05:19:28Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| spelling | doaj.art-03eeb9d82cbc4ee786ce7d7984fa1ab22022-12-21T22:02:01ZengElsevierGlobal Ecology and Conservation2351-98942021-10-0130e01794Climate change projections suggest severe decreases in the geographic ranges of bird species restricted to Mexican humid mountain forestsPablo Sierra-Morales0Octavio Rojas-Soto1César A. Ríos-Muñoz2Leticia M. Ochoa-Ochoa3Pedro Flores-Rodríguez4R. Carlos Almazán-Núñez5Posgrado en Recursos Naturales y Ecología, Facultad de Ecología Marina, Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero, Av. Gran Vía Tropical 20, Fraccionamiento Las Playas, Acapulco, 39390 Guerrero, México; Laboratorio Integral de Fauna Silvestre (área de ornitología), Facultad de Ciencias Químico-Biológicas, Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero, Av. Lázaro Cárdenas s/n, Ciudad Universitaria Sur, Chilpancingo de los Bravo, 39090 Guerrero, MéxicoLaboratorio de Bioclimatología, Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A.C. Carretera antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, Xalapa 91070, Veracruz, MéxicoSecretaría de Desarrollo Institucional, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Torre de Rectoría piso 8, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México 04510, México; Centro de Estudios Mexicanos UNAM-Costa Rica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Edificio del Centro de Investigación y Capacitación en Administración Pública (CICAP), 2° piso, San Pedro Montes de Oca, 11501-2060 San José, Costa RicaMuseo de Zoología “Alfonso L. Herrera”, Departamento de Biología Evolutiva, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito Exterior s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Ciudad de Mexico, MéxicoFacultad de Ecología Marina, Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero, Av. Gran Vía Tropical 20, Fraccionamiento Las Playas, Acapulco, 39390 Guerrero, MéxicoLaboratorio Integral de Fauna Silvestre (área de ornitología), Facultad de Ciencias Químico-Biológicas, Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero, Av. Lázaro Cárdenas s/n, Ciudad Universitaria Sur, Chilpancingo de los Bravo, 39090 Guerrero, México; Corresponding author.Climate change-driven modifications in thermal and precipitation patterns can result in shifts in species distributions. Avian species in humid mountain forests (HMF) are among the most vulnerable to these atmospheric changes. In this study, we assessed the extent to which climate change could cause distribution shifts in 34 bird species spatially restricted to HMF ecosystems in Mexico. In addition, we analyzed the representation of the species in protected areas (PAs) and the extension these areas covered in the entire range of each species. Species distribution models (SDMs) were generated using Maxent algorithm. Future SDM scenarios were considered using two scenarios: The Interdisciplinary Climate Research Model (MIROC5) and The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) with a single representative concentration pathway (RCP6.0). We found that by 2050, under MIROC5, modeled species distributions showed an average reduction of 34%, and under CCSM4, a decrease of 40%. By 2070, MIROC5 showed an average a reduction of 51% and under CCSM4 of 54%. SDMs for 20 species overlapped with protected areas (PA), although nine species would reduce their presence in the PAs by 2050 under MIROC5 and 11 under CCSM4. By 2070, 11 and 12 species respectively for both scenarios, would reduce their distribution range in the PAs. More than 94% of the bird species considered, have less than 10% of their distribution in PAs in the current and future scenarios. The species distribution models of 14 species, particularly those of small range, showed no overlap with any PA under the current or future scenarios. To ensure that HMF endemic bird species are represented in different protected areas in the future, conservation schemes such as protected social and community areas and biological corridors could be valuable in ensuring the conservation of endemic birds in the long-term, especially in those regions underrepresented by PAs.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989421003449ConservationMexicoProtected areasCloud forestsSpecies distribution modeling |
| spellingShingle | Pablo Sierra-Morales Octavio Rojas-Soto César A. Ríos-Muñoz Leticia M. Ochoa-Ochoa Pedro Flores-Rodríguez R. Carlos Almazán-Núñez Climate change projections suggest severe decreases in the geographic ranges of bird species restricted to Mexican humid mountain forests Global Ecology and Conservation Conservation Mexico Protected areas Cloud forests Species distribution modeling |
| title | Climate change projections suggest severe decreases in the geographic ranges of bird species restricted to Mexican humid mountain forests |
| title_full | Climate change projections suggest severe decreases in the geographic ranges of bird species restricted to Mexican humid mountain forests |
| title_fullStr | Climate change projections suggest severe decreases in the geographic ranges of bird species restricted to Mexican humid mountain forests |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change projections suggest severe decreases in the geographic ranges of bird species restricted to Mexican humid mountain forests |
| title_short | Climate change projections suggest severe decreases in the geographic ranges of bird species restricted to Mexican humid mountain forests |
| title_sort | climate change projections suggest severe decreases in the geographic ranges of bird species restricted to mexican humid mountain forests |
| topic | Conservation Mexico Protected areas Cloud forests Species distribution modeling |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989421003449 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pablosierramorales climatechangeprojectionssuggestseveredecreasesinthegeographicrangesofbirdspeciesrestrictedtomexicanhumidmountainforests AT octaviorojassoto climatechangeprojectionssuggestseveredecreasesinthegeographicrangesofbirdspeciesrestrictedtomexicanhumidmountainforests AT cesarariosmunoz climatechangeprojectionssuggestseveredecreasesinthegeographicrangesofbirdspeciesrestrictedtomexicanhumidmountainforests AT leticiamochoaochoa climatechangeprojectionssuggestseveredecreasesinthegeographicrangesofbirdspeciesrestrictedtomexicanhumidmountainforests AT pedrofloresrodriguez climatechangeprojectionssuggestseveredecreasesinthegeographicrangesofbirdspeciesrestrictedtomexicanhumidmountainforests AT rcarlosalmazannunez climatechangeprojectionssuggestseveredecreasesinthegeographicrangesofbirdspeciesrestrictedtomexicanhumidmountainforests |