Ericaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change
Abstract Climate change impacts the structure, functioning, and distribution of species and ecosystems. It will shift ecosystem boundaries, potentially affecting vulnerable ecosystems, such as tropical Africa's high mountain ecosystems, i.e., afroalpine ecosystems, and their highly susceptible...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2022-02-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05846-z |
| _version_ | 1818486388378566656 |
|---|---|
| author | Yohannes O. Kidane Samuel Hoffmann Anja Jaeschke Mirela Beloiu Carl Beierkuhnlein |
| author_facet | Yohannes O. Kidane Samuel Hoffmann Anja Jaeschke Mirela Beloiu Carl Beierkuhnlein |
| author_sort | Yohannes O. Kidane |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change impacts the structure, functioning, and distribution of species and ecosystems. It will shift ecosystem boundaries, potentially affecting vulnerable ecosystems, such as tropical Africa's high mountain ecosystems, i.e., afroalpine ecosystems, and their highly susceptible uniquely adapted species. However, ecosystems along these mountains are not expected to respond similarly to the change. The ericaceous woody vegetation, located between the low-elevation broadleaf forests and high-elevation afroalpine vegetation, are anticipated to be affected differently. We hypothesize that projected climate change will result in an upward expansion and increasing dominance of ericaceous vegetation, which will negatively impact the endemic rich afroalpine ecosystems of the extensive Sanetti plateau. Hence, we modeled the impact of future climate change on the distribution of ericaceous vegetation and discussed its effect on bordering ecosystems in the Bale Mountains. We applied four familiar correlative modeling approaches: bioclim, domain, generalized linear methods, and support vector machines. We used WorldClim’s bioclimatic variables as environmental predictors and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report climate change scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for future climate projection. The results indicate increased ericaceous vegetation cover on the midaltitude of northwestern and northern parts of the massif, and the Sanetti plateau. We observed upward range expansion and increase of close ericaceous vegetation in midaltitudes, while receding from the lower range across the massif. Moreover, the current ericaceous vegetation range correlates to the temperature and precipitation trends, reaffirming the critical role of temperature and precipitation in determining species distributions along elevational gradients. The results indicate the high likelihood of considerable changes in this biodiversity hotspot in Eastern Africa. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T16:22:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-04089d38664b40e59e796450203f09cb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T16:22:17Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-04089d38664b40e59e796450203f09cb2022-12-22T01:41:46ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-02-0112111710.1038/s41598-022-05846-zEricaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate changeYohannes O. Kidane0Samuel Hoffmann1Anja Jaeschke2Mirela Beloiu3Carl Beierkuhnlein4Department of Biogeography, University of BayreuthDepartment of Biogeography, University of BayreuthDepartment of Biogeography, University of BayreuthDepartment of Biogeography, University of BayreuthDepartment of Biogeography, University of BayreuthAbstract Climate change impacts the structure, functioning, and distribution of species and ecosystems. It will shift ecosystem boundaries, potentially affecting vulnerable ecosystems, such as tropical Africa's high mountain ecosystems, i.e., afroalpine ecosystems, and their highly susceptible uniquely adapted species. However, ecosystems along these mountains are not expected to respond similarly to the change. The ericaceous woody vegetation, located between the low-elevation broadleaf forests and high-elevation afroalpine vegetation, are anticipated to be affected differently. We hypothesize that projected climate change will result in an upward expansion and increasing dominance of ericaceous vegetation, which will negatively impact the endemic rich afroalpine ecosystems of the extensive Sanetti plateau. Hence, we modeled the impact of future climate change on the distribution of ericaceous vegetation and discussed its effect on bordering ecosystems in the Bale Mountains. We applied four familiar correlative modeling approaches: bioclim, domain, generalized linear methods, and support vector machines. We used WorldClim’s bioclimatic variables as environmental predictors and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report climate change scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for future climate projection. The results indicate increased ericaceous vegetation cover on the midaltitude of northwestern and northern parts of the massif, and the Sanetti plateau. We observed upward range expansion and increase of close ericaceous vegetation in midaltitudes, while receding from the lower range across the massif. Moreover, the current ericaceous vegetation range correlates to the temperature and precipitation trends, reaffirming the critical role of temperature and precipitation in determining species distributions along elevational gradients. The results indicate the high likelihood of considerable changes in this biodiversity hotspot in Eastern Africa.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05846-z |
| spellingShingle | Yohannes O. Kidane Samuel Hoffmann Anja Jaeschke Mirela Beloiu Carl Beierkuhnlein Ericaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change Scientific Reports |
| title | Ericaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change |
| title_full | Ericaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change |
| title_fullStr | Ericaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ericaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change |
| title_short | Ericaceous vegetation of the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change |
| title_sort | ericaceous vegetation of the bale mountains of ethiopia will prevail in the face of climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05846-z |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yohannesokidane ericaceousvegetationofthebalemountainsofethiopiawillprevailinthefaceofclimatechange AT samuelhoffmann ericaceousvegetationofthebalemountainsofethiopiawillprevailinthefaceofclimatechange AT anjajaeschke ericaceousvegetationofthebalemountainsofethiopiawillprevailinthefaceofclimatechange AT mirelabeloiu ericaceousvegetationofthebalemountainsofethiopiawillprevailinthefaceofclimatechange AT carlbeierkuhnlein ericaceousvegetationofthebalemountainsofethiopiawillprevailinthefaceofclimatechange |