Prediction of Climatic Variables using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Future under Scenario A2
In recent decades, the increase of temperature has caused the disturbance of climatic balance of the earth and extensive climate changes which is called climate change. The aim of this study is to predict the climate changes using statistical downscaling model (SDSM) based on A2 scenario over future...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
| Published: |
Iranian Scientific Association of Desert Management and Control (ISADMC)
2016-03-01
|
| Series: | مدیریت بیابان |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.jdmal.ir/article_22240_8119c29da500e48d5ef34d12937bf573.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811161527132094464 |
|---|---|
| author | Ali Salajegheh Elham Rafiei Sardooei Ali Reza Moghaddamnia Arash Malekian Shahab Araghinejad Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi Ali Salehpourjam |
| author_facet | Ali Salajegheh Elham Rafiei Sardooei Ali Reza Moghaddamnia Arash Malekian Shahab Araghinejad Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi Ali Salehpourjam |
| author_sort | Ali Salajegheh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent decades, the increase of temperature has caused the disturbance of climatic balance of the earth and extensive climate changes which is called climate change. The aim of this study is to predict the climate changes using statistical downscaling model (SDSM) based on A2 scenario over future periods. Daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature data of Kermanshah synoptic station, for two periods 2015-2040 and 2040-2065, were predicted and compared with the baseline period. The first 27 years of data (1988-1961) were used for calibration and the second 12 years (1989-2001) were used for validation of the model as well. The results showed that based on the A2 scenario, in the periods of 2015- 2040 and 2040- 2065, the average annual precipitation decreases, the average minimum and maximum temperature increases compared to the baseline period in the Kermanshah synoptic station. Since the precipitation reduction and temperature increase are one of the main factors of desertification, so it is necessary for decision makers and planners in Kermanshah province to adopt necessary solutions for mitigation and adaptation with new climatic conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T06:16:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-041d203e186e49cab8b95b3fdebe3040 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2476-3985 2476-3721 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T06:16:53Z |
| publishDate | 2016-03-01 |
| publisher | Iranian Scientific Association of Desert Management and Control (ISADMC) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | مدیریت بیابان |
| spelling | doaj.art-041d203e186e49cab8b95b3fdebe30402023-03-02T06:43:29ZfasIranian Scientific Association of Desert Management and Control (ISADMC)مدیریت بیابان2476-39852476-37212016-03-0147122510.22034/jdmal.2016.2224022240Prediction of Climatic Variables using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Future under Scenario A2Ali Salajegheh0Elham Rafiei Sardooei1Ali Reza Moghaddamnia2Arash Malekian3Shahab Araghinejad4Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi5Ali Salehpourjam6Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, IranFormer student, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, IranAssociate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, IranAssociate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, IranAssociate Professor, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, University of Tehran, Karaj, IranAssociate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, IranAssistant Professor, Soil Conservation and watershed Management Research Institute, Tehran, IranIn recent decades, the increase of temperature has caused the disturbance of climatic balance of the earth and extensive climate changes which is called climate change. The aim of this study is to predict the climate changes using statistical downscaling model (SDSM) based on A2 scenario over future periods. Daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature data of Kermanshah synoptic station, for two periods 2015-2040 and 2040-2065, were predicted and compared with the baseline period. The first 27 years of data (1988-1961) were used for calibration and the second 12 years (1989-2001) were used for validation of the model as well. The results showed that based on the A2 scenario, in the periods of 2015- 2040 and 2040- 2065, the average annual precipitation decreases, the average minimum and maximum temperature increases compared to the baseline period in the Kermanshah synoptic station. Since the precipitation reduction and temperature increase are one of the main factors of desertification, so it is necessary for decision makers and planners in Kermanshah province to adopt necessary solutions for mitigation and adaptation with new climatic conditions.http://www.jdmal.ir/article_22240_8119c29da500e48d5ef34d12937bf573.pdfprecipitationminimum temperaturemaximum temperatureclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Ali Salajegheh Elham Rafiei Sardooei Ali Reza Moghaddamnia Arash Malekian Shahab Araghinejad Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi Ali Salehpourjam Prediction of Climatic Variables using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Future under Scenario A2 مدیریت بیابان precipitation minimum temperature maximum temperature climate change |
| title | Prediction of Climatic Variables using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Future under Scenario A2 |
| title_full | Prediction of Climatic Variables using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Future under Scenario A2 |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of Climatic Variables using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Future under Scenario A2 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of Climatic Variables using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Future under Scenario A2 |
| title_short | Prediction of Climatic Variables using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Future under Scenario A2 |
| title_sort | prediction of climatic variables using statistical downscaling model sdsm in future under scenario a2 |
| topic | precipitation minimum temperature maximum temperature climate change |
| url | http://www.jdmal.ir/article_22240_8119c29da500e48d5ef34d12937bf573.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alisalajegheh predictionofclimaticvariablesusingstatisticaldownscalingmodelsdsminfutureunderscenarioa2 AT elhamrafieisardooei predictionofclimaticvariablesusingstatisticaldownscalingmodelsdsminfutureunderscenarioa2 AT alirezamoghaddamnia predictionofclimaticvariablesusingstatisticaldownscalingmodelsdsminfutureunderscenarioa2 AT arashmalekian predictionofclimaticvariablesusingstatisticaldownscalingmodelsdsminfutureunderscenarioa2 AT shahabaraghinejad predictionofclimaticvariablesusingstatisticaldownscalingmodelsdsminfutureunderscenarioa2 AT shahramkhalighisigaroodi predictionofclimaticvariablesusingstatisticaldownscalingmodelsdsminfutureunderscenarioa2 AT alisalehpourjam predictionofclimaticvariablesusingstatisticaldownscalingmodelsdsminfutureunderscenarioa2 |