Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan
Background Predictive scenarios of heatstroke over the long-term future have yet to be formulated. The purpose of the present study was to generate baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations using climate change scenario datasets in Tokyo, Japan. Methods Data on the number of heat-...
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PeerJ Inc.
2022-07-01
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| author | Marie Fujimoto Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_facet | Marie Fujimoto Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_sort | Marie Fujimoto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background Predictive scenarios of heatstroke over the long-term future have yet to be formulated. The purpose of the present study was to generate baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations using climate change scenario datasets in Tokyo, Japan. Methods Data on the number of heat-related ambulance transportations in Tokyo from 2015 to 2019 were examined, and the relationship between the risk of heat-related ambulance transportations and the daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) was modeled using three simple dose–response models. To quantify the risk of heatstroke, future climatological variables were then retrieved to compute the WBGT up to the year 2100 from climate change scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) using two scenario models. The predicted risk of heat-related ambulance transportations was embedded onto the future age-specific projected population. Results The proportion of the number of days with a WBGT above 28°C is predicted to increase every five years by 0.16% for RCP2.6, 0.31% for RCP4.5, and 0.68% for RCP8.5. In 2100, compared with 2000, the number of heat-related ambulance transportations is predicted to be more than three times greater among people aged 0–64 years and six times greater among people aged 65 years or older. The variance of the heatstroke risk becomes greater as the WBGT increases. Conclusions The increased risk of heatstroke for the long-term future was demonstrated using a simple statistical approach. Even with the RCP2.6 scenario, with the mildest impact of global warming, the risk of heatstroke is expected to increase. The future course of heatstroke predicted by our approach acts as a baseline for future studies. |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T08:22:17Z |
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| spelling | doaj.art-04702e7299a44c6092d9853c8535920f2023-12-02T21:41:28ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592022-07-0110e1383810.7717/peerj.13838Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, JapanMarie Fujimoto0Hiroshi Nishiura1School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanSchool of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanBackground Predictive scenarios of heatstroke over the long-term future have yet to be formulated. The purpose of the present study was to generate baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations using climate change scenario datasets in Tokyo, Japan. Methods Data on the number of heat-related ambulance transportations in Tokyo from 2015 to 2019 were examined, and the relationship between the risk of heat-related ambulance transportations and the daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) was modeled using three simple dose–response models. To quantify the risk of heatstroke, future climatological variables were then retrieved to compute the WBGT up to the year 2100 from climate change scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) using two scenario models. The predicted risk of heat-related ambulance transportations was embedded onto the future age-specific projected population. Results The proportion of the number of days with a WBGT above 28°C is predicted to increase every five years by 0.16% for RCP2.6, 0.31% for RCP4.5, and 0.68% for RCP8.5. In 2100, compared with 2000, the number of heat-related ambulance transportations is predicted to be more than three times greater among people aged 0–64 years and six times greater among people aged 65 years or older. The variance of the heatstroke risk becomes greater as the WBGT increases. Conclusions The increased risk of heatstroke for the long-term future was demonstrated using a simple statistical approach. Even with the RCP2.6 scenario, with the mildest impact of global warming, the risk of heatstroke is expected to increase. The future course of heatstroke predicted by our approach acts as a baseline for future studies.https://peerj.com/articles/13838.pdfStatistical modelGlobal warmingHeatstrokeAdaptationForecastingCMIP6 |
| spellingShingle | Marie Fujimoto Hiroshi Nishiura Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan PeerJ Statistical model Global warming Heatstroke Adaptation Forecasting CMIP6 |
| title | Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan |
| title_full | Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan |
| title_fullStr | Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan |
| title_short | Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan |
| title_sort | baseline scenarios of heat related ambulance transportations under climate change in tokyo japan |
| topic | Statistical model Global warming Heatstroke Adaptation Forecasting CMIP6 |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/13838.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mariefujimoto baselinescenariosofheatrelatedambulancetransportationsunderclimatechangeintokyojapan AT hiroshinishiura baselinescenariosofheatrelatedambulancetransportationsunderclimatechangeintokyojapan |