Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates
Precipitation extremes are among the most dangerous climate-related hazards, and these hazards often cause large socioeconomic losses and exert severe human health impacts each year. It is thus crucial to assess future exposure changes to precipitation extremes under different warming scenarios to i...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab751f |
| _version_ | 1827869990958661632 |
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| author | Huopo Chen Jianqi Sun Huixin Li |
| author_facet | Huopo Chen Jianqi Sun Huixin Li |
| author_sort | Huopo Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Precipitation extremes are among the most dangerous climate-related hazards, and these hazards often cause large socioeconomic losses and exert severe human health impacts each year. It is thus crucial to assess future exposure changes to precipitation extremes under different warming scenarios to improve the mitigation of climate change. Here, we project future exposure using a set of Coupled Earth System Model low-warming simulations and RCP8.5 large ensemble simulations. We find that the precipitation extremes are projected to significantly increase over the coming century under different future warming scenarios at both the global and regional levels. Compared to a 1.5 °C warmer climate, the 0.5 °C of additional warming under a 2.0 °C warmer future would increase the number of days of global aggregate precipitation extremes by approximately 3.6% by the end of this century. As a result, the global aggregate exposure is reported to increase by approximately 2.3% if the surface air temperature increases to 2.0 °C rather than 1.5 °C. An increase in exposure is also obvious for most regions across the world, and the largest increase in the future occurs over North Asia in response to the 0.5 °C of additional warming. Furthermore, exposure would increase more rapidly if the temperature increased following the RCP8.5 pathway. The exposure increase varies at the regional level, but in most cases, climate change shows more influential than that of the population; in addition, this influence does not depend on the population outcomes used here. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-048872a14aae49068d87b3085c9a742a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:25Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-048872a14aae49068d87b3085c9a742a2023-08-09T15:05:05ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115303404810.1088/1748-9326/ab751fIncreased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climatesHuopo Chen0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0760-8353Jianqi Sun1Huixin Li2Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaNansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaPrecipitation extremes are among the most dangerous climate-related hazards, and these hazards often cause large socioeconomic losses and exert severe human health impacts each year. It is thus crucial to assess future exposure changes to precipitation extremes under different warming scenarios to improve the mitigation of climate change. Here, we project future exposure using a set of Coupled Earth System Model low-warming simulations and RCP8.5 large ensemble simulations. We find that the precipitation extremes are projected to significantly increase over the coming century under different future warming scenarios at both the global and regional levels. Compared to a 1.5 °C warmer climate, the 0.5 °C of additional warming under a 2.0 °C warmer future would increase the number of days of global aggregate precipitation extremes by approximately 3.6% by the end of this century. As a result, the global aggregate exposure is reported to increase by approximately 2.3% if the surface air temperature increases to 2.0 °C rather than 1.5 °C. An increase in exposure is also obvious for most regions across the world, and the largest increase in the future occurs over North Asia in response to the 0.5 °C of additional warming. Furthermore, exposure would increase more rapidly if the temperature increased following the RCP8.5 pathway. The exposure increase varies at the regional level, but in most cases, climate change shows more influential than that of the population; in addition, this influence does not depend on the population outcomes used here.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab751fprecipitation extremespopulation exposureclimate changeCESM1.5°C |
| spellingShingle | Huopo Chen Jianqi Sun Huixin Li Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates Environmental Research Letters precipitation extremes population exposure climate change CESM 1.5°C |
| title | Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates |
| title_full | Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates |
| title_fullStr | Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates |
| title_short | Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates |
| title_sort | increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates |
| topic | precipitation extremes population exposure climate change CESM 1.5°C |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab751f |
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