Prospects of Passenger Vehicles in China to Meet Dual Carbon Goals and Bottleneck of Critical Materials from a Fleet Evolution Perspective
China has pledged to peak its CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. To meet these goals, China needs to accelerate the electrification of passenger vehicles. However, the rapid development of electric vehicles may impact the supply of critical raw materi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2024-01-01
|
| Series: | World Electric Vehicle Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/15/1/14 |
| _version_ | 1797339255666638848 |
|---|---|
| author | Rujie Yu Longze Cong Yaoming Li Chunjia Ran Dongchang Zhao Ping Li |
| author_facet | Rujie Yu Longze Cong Yaoming Li Chunjia Ran Dongchang Zhao Ping Li |
| author_sort | Rujie Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | China has pledged to peak its CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. To meet these goals, China needs to accelerate the electrification of passenger vehicles. However, the rapid development of electric vehicles may impact the supply of critical raw materials, which may hinder the low-carbon transition. Therefore, the impact of vehicle electrification on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and the corresponding bottlenecks in the supply of critical raw materials should be systematically considered. In this study, we developed the China Automotive Fleet CO<sub>2</sub> Model (CAFCM) to simulate a mixed-technology passenger vehicle fleet evolution. We further assessed the impact of energy and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and evaluated the demand for critical battery materials. We designed three scenarios with different powertrain type penetration rates to depict the potential uncertainty. The results showed that (1) the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions of passenger vehicles in both the operation stage and the fuel cycle can peak before 2030; (2) achieving the dual carbon goals will lead to a rapid increase in the demand for critical raw materials for batteries and lead to potential supply risks, especially for cobalt, with the cumulative demand for cobalt for new energy passenger vehicles in China being 5.7 to 7.3 times larger than China’s total cobalt reserves; and (3) the potential amount of critical material recycled from retired power batteries will rapidly increase but will not be able to substantially alleviate the demand for critical materials before 2035. China’s new energy vehicle promotion policies and key resource supply risks must be systematically coordinated under the dual carbon goals. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T09:44:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-04c4863aaa054edeb14badbe762e8828 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2032-6653 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T09:44:17Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | World Electric Vehicle Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-04c4863aaa054edeb14badbe762e88282024-01-29T14:26:24ZengMDPI AGWorld Electric Vehicle Journal2032-66532024-01-011511410.3390/wevj15010014Prospects of Passenger Vehicles in China to Meet Dual Carbon Goals and Bottleneck of Critical Materials from a Fleet Evolution PerspectiveRujie Yu0Longze Cong1Yaoming Li2Chunjia Ran3Dongchang Zhao4Ping Li5Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, ChinaChina Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300300, ChinaChina Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300300, ChinaChina Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300300, ChinaChina Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300300, ChinaChina Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300300, ChinaChina has pledged to peak its CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. To meet these goals, China needs to accelerate the electrification of passenger vehicles. However, the rapid development of electric vehicles may impact the supply of critical raw materials, which may hinder the low-carbon transition. Therefore, the impact of vehicle electrification on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and the corresponding bottlenecks in the supply of critical raw materials should be systematically considered. In this study, we developed the China Automotive Fleet CO<sub>2</sub> Model (CAFCM) to simulate a mixed-technology passenger vehicle fleet evolution. We further assessed the impact of energy and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and evaluated the demand for critical battery materials. We designed three scenarios with different powertrain type penetration rates to depict the potential uncertainty. The results showed that (1) the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions of passenger vehicles in both the operation stage and the fuel cycle can peak before 2030; (2) achieving the dual carbon goals will lead to a rapid increase in the demand for critical raw materials for batteries and lead to potential supply risks, especially for cobalt, with the cumulative demand for cobalt for new energy passenger vehicles in China being 5.7 to 7.3 times larger than China’s total cobalt reserves; and (3) the potential amount of critical material recycled from retired power batteries will rapidly increase but will not be able to substantially alleviate the demand for critical materials before 2035. China’s new energy vehicle promotion policies and key resource supply risks must be systematically coordinated under the dual carbon goals.https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/15/1/14carbon peakcarbon neutralizationelectric vehiclesbatteriescritical materials |
| spellingShingle | Rujie Yu Longze Cong Yaoming Li Chunjia Ran Dongchang Zhao Ping Li Prospects of Passenger Vehicles in China to Meet Dual Carbon Goals and Bottleneck of Critical Materials from a Fleet Evolution Perspective World Electric Vehicle Journal carbon peak carbon neutralization electric vehicles batteries critical materials |
| title | Prospects of Passenger Vehicles in China to Meet Dual Carbon Goals and Bottleneck of Critical Materials from a Fleet Evolution Perspective |
| title_full | Prospects of Passenger Vehicles in China to Meet Dual Carbon Goals and Bottleneck of Critical Materials from a Fleet Evolution Perspective |
| title_fullStr | Prospects of Passenger Vehicles in China to Meet Dual Carbon Goals and Bottleneck of Critical Materials from a Fleet Evolution Perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prospects of Passenger Vehicles in China to Meet Dual Carbon Goals and Bottleneck of Critical Materials from a Fleet Evolution Perspective |
| title_short | Prospects of Passenger Vehicles in China to Meet Dual Carbon Goals and Bottleneck of Critical Materials from a Fleet Evolution Perspective |
| title_sort | prospects of passenger vehicles in china to meet dual carbon goals and bottleneck of critical materials from a fleet evolution perspective |
| topic | carbon peak carbon neutralization electric vehicles batteries critical materials |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2032-6653/15/1/14 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rujieyu prospectsofpassengervehiclesinchinatomeetdualcarbongoalsandbottleneckofcriticalmaterialsfromafleetevolutionperspective AT longzecong prospectsofpassengervehiclesinchinatomeetdualcarbongoalsandbottleneckofcriticalmaterialsfromafleetevolutionperspective AT yaomingli prospectsofpassengervehiclesinchinatomeetdualcarbongoalsandbottleneckofcriticalmaterialsfromafleetevolutionperspective AT chunjiaran prospectsofpassengervehiclesinchinatomeetdualcarbongoalsandbottleneckofcriticalmaterialsfromafleetevolutionperspective AT dongchangzhao prospectsofpassengervehiclesinchinatomeetdualcarbongoalsandbottleneckofcriticalmaterialsfromafleetevolutionperspective AT pingli prospectsofpassengervehiclesinchinatomeetdualcarbongoalsandbottleneckofcriticalmaterialsfromafleetevolutionperspective |