Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling
Abstract Background Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people’s health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population’s needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in ph...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2020-11-01
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| Series: | Human Resources for Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12960-020-00524-5 |
| _version_ | 1818317764017782784 |
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| author | Yasuhiro Morii Seiichi Furuta Tomoki Ishikawa Kensuke Fujiwara Hiroko Yamashina Katsuhiko Ogasawara |
| author_facet | Yasuhiro Morii Seiichi Furuta Tomoki Ishikawa Kensuke Fujiwara Hiroko Yamashina Katsuhiko Ogasawara |
| author_sort | Yasuhiro Morii |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people’s health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population’s needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists. Methods The future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015–2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists. Results The projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist. Conclusion Optimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015–2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversupply after 2025. Refinements of the projection model should be conducted since the related factors such as the roles of pharmacists will change over time. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T09:42:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-052287b5957e40258f7c0ee07d8b6fe3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1478-4491 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T09:42:30Z |
| publishDate | 2020-11-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Human Resources for Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-052287b5957e40258f7c0ee07d8b6fe32022-12-21T23:52:10ZengBMCHuman Resources for Health1478-44912020-11-0118111310.1186/s12960-020-00524-5Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modelingYasuhiro Morii0Seiichi Furuta1Tomoki Ishikawa2Kensuke Fujiwara3Hiroko Yamashina4Katsuhiko Ogasawara5Faculty of Health Sciences, Hokkaido UniversityThe Department of Pharmacy, Hokkaido University of ScienceFaculty of Health Sciences, Hokkaido UniversityFaculty of Health Sciences, Hokkaido UniversityFaculty of Health Sciences, Hokkaido UniversityFaculty of Health Sciences, Hokkaido UniversityAbstract Background Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people’s health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population’s needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists. Methods The future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015–2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists. Results The projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist. Conclusion Optimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015–2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversupply after 2025. Refinements of the projection model should be conducted since the related factors such as the roles of pharmacists will change over time.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12960-020-00524-5Health human resourcingPharmacistsForecastingSystem dynamics modeling |
| spellingShingle | Yasuhiro Morii Seiichi Furuta Tomoki Ishikawa Kensuke Fujiwara Hiroko Yamashina Katsuhiko Ogasawara Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling Human Resources for Health Health human resourcing Pharmacists Forecasting System dynamics modeling |
| title | Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
| title_full | Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
| title_fullStr | Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
| title_short | Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
| title_sort | projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
| topic | Health human resourcing Pharmacists Forecasting System dynamics modeling |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12960-020-00524-5 |
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