Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection
Background. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the fir...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
PeerJ Inc.
2016-04-01
|
| Series: | PeerJ |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/1904.pdf |
| _version_ | 1827605558166814720 |
|---|---|
| author | Kyeongah Nah Kenji Mizumoto Yuichiro Miyamatsu Yohei Yasuda Ryo Kinoshita Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_facet | Kyeongah Nah Kenji Mizumoto Yuichiro Miyamatsu Yohei Yasuda Ryo Kinoshita Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_sort | Kyeongah Nah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the first imported case was diagnosed) in each imported country was collected from publicly available data sources. Employing a survival analysis model in which the hazard is an inverse function of the effective distance as informed by the airline transportation network data, and using dengue and chikungunya virus transmission data, risks of importation and local transmission were estimated. Results. A total of 78 countries with imported case(s) have been identified, with the arrival time ranging from 1 to 44 weeks since the first ZIKV was identified in Brazil, 2015. Whereas the risk of importation was well explained by the airline transportation network data, the risk of local transmission appeared to be best captured by additionally accounting for the presence of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Discussion. The risk of importation may be high given continued global travel of mildly infected travelers but, considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women. The predicted risk of local transmission was frequently seen in tropical and subtropical countries with dengue or chikungunya epidemic experience. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:23:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0530884ddb71405da3c06b648e850bbe |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:23:25Z |
| publishDate | 2016-04-01 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PeerJ |
| spelling | doaj.art-0530884ddb71405da3c06b648e850bbe2023-12-03T11:30:37ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592016-04-014e190410.7717/peerj.1904Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infectionKyeongah Nah0Kenji Mizumoto1Yuichiro Miyamatsu2Yohei Yasuda3Ryo Kinoshita4Hiroshi Nishiura5Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanGraduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanGraduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanGraduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanGraduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanGraduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanBackground. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the first imported case was diagnosed) in each imported country was collected from publicly available data sources. Employing a survival analysis model in which the hazard is an inverse function of the effective distance as informed by the airline transportation network data, and using dengue and chikungunya virus transmission data, risks of importation and local transmission were estimated. Results. A total of 78 countries with imported case(s) have been identified, with the arrival time ranging from 1 to 44 weeks since the first ZIKV was identified in Brazil, 2015. Whereas the risk of importation was well explained by the airline transportation network data, the risk of local transmission appeared to be best captured by additionally accounting for the presence of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Discussion. The risk of importation may be high given continued global travel of mildly infected travelers but, considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women. The predicted risk of local transmission was frequently seen in tropical and subtropical countries with dengue or chikungunya epidemic experience.https://peerj.com/articles/1904.pdfZika virusImportationRiskMathematical modelTransmissionStatistical estimation |
| spellingShingle | Kyeongah Nah Kenji Mizumoto Yuichiro Miyamatsu Yohei Yasuda Ryo Kinoshita Hiroshi Nishiura Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection PeerJ Zika virus Importation Risk Mathematical model Transmission Statistical estimation |
| title | Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection |
| title_full | Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection |
| title_fullStr | Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection |
| title_short | Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection |
| title_sort | estimating risks of importation and local transmission of zika virus infection |
| topic | Zika virus Importation Risk Mathematical model Transmission Statistical estimation |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/1904.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kyeongahnah estimatingrisksofimportationandlocaltransmissionofzikavirusinfection AT kenjimizumoto estimatingrisksofimportationandlocaltransmissionofzikavirusinfection AT yuichiromiyamatsu estimatingrisksofimportationandlocaltransmissionofzikavirusinfection AT yoheiyasuda estimatingrisksofimportationandlocaltransmissionofzikavirusinfection AT ryokinoshita estimatingrisksofimportationandlocaltransmissionofzikavirusinfection AT hiroshinishiura estimatingrisksofimportationandlocaltransmissionofzikavirusinfection |