Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
To support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the new HAPPI ensemble of 20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models, WaterGAP and LPJmL, for assessing freshwater-related hazards and risks in worlds approximately 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer tha...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab792 |
| _version_ | 1797748250123436032 |
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| author | Petra Döll Tim Trautmann Dieter Gerten Hannes Müller Schmied Sebastian Ostberg Fahad Saaed Carl-Friedrich Schleussner |
| author_facet | Petra Döll Tim Trautmann Dieter Gerten Hannes Müller Schmied Sebastian Ostberg Fahad Saaed Carl-Friedrich Schleussner |
| author_sort | Petra Döll |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the new HAPPI ensemble of 20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models, WaterGAP and LPJmL, for assessing freshwater-related hazards and risks in worlds approximately 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial. Quasi-stationary HAPPI simulations are better suited than transient CMIP-like simulations for assessing hazards at the two targeted long-term global warming (GW) levels. We analyzed seven hydrological hazard indicators that characterize freshwater-related hazards for humans, freshwater biota and vegetation. Using a strict definition for significant differences, we identified for all but one indicator that areas with either significantly wetter or drier conditions (calculated as percent changes from 2006–2015) are smaller in the 1.5 °C world. For example, 7 day high flow is projected to increase significantly on 11% and 21% of the global land area at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively. However, differences between hydrological hazards at the two GW levels are significant on less than 12% of the area. GW affects a larger area and more people by increases—rather than by decreases—of mean annual and 1-in-10 dry year streamflow, 7 day high flow, and groundwater recharge. The opposite is true for 7 day low flow, maximum snow storage, and soil moisture in the driest month of the growing period. Mean annual streamflow shows the lowest projected percent changes of all indicators. Among country groups, low income countries and lower middle income countries are most affected by decreased low flows and increased high flows, respectively, while high income countries are least affected by such changes. The incremental impact between 1.5 °C and 2 °C on high flows would be felt most by low income and lower middle income countries, the effect on soil moisture and low flows most by high income countries. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0567854db7014d6faf5f1b8ff620360d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:14Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-0567854db7014d6faf5f1b8ff620360d2023-08-09T14:33:13ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113404403810.1088/1748-9326/aab792Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warmingPetra Döll0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2238-4546Tim Trautmann1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8652-6836Dieter Gerten2Hannes Müller Schmied3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5330-9923Sebastian Ostberg4Fahad Saaed5https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1899-9118Carl-Friedrich Schleussner6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8471-848XInstitute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt , Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F) , Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt , Frankfurt am Main, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, Germany; Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin , Berlin, GermanyInstitute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt , Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F) , Frankfurt am Main, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, Germany; Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin , Berlin, GermanyClimate Analytics , Berlin, Germany; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research , Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi ArabiaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, Germany; Climate Analytics , Berlin, Germany; IRITHESys , Humboldt University, Berlin, GermanyTo support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the new HAPPI ensemble of 20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models, WaterGAP and LPJmL, for assessing freshwater-related hazards and risks in worlds approximately 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial. Quasi-stationary HAPPI simulations are better suited than transient CMIP-like simulations for assessing hazards at the two targeted long-term global warming (GW) levels. We analyzed seven hydrological hazard indicators that characterize freshwater-related hazards for humans, freshwater biota and vegetation. Using a strict definition for significant differences, we identified for all but one indicator that areas with either significantly wetter or drier conditions (calculated as percent changes from 2006–2015) are smaller in the 1.5 °C world. For example, 7 day high flow is projected to increase significantly on 11% and 21% of the global land area at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively. However, differences between hydrological hazards at the two GW levels are significant on less than 12% of the area. GW affects a larger area and more people by increases—rather than by decreases—of mean annual and 1-in-10 dry year streamflow, 7 day high flow, and groundwater recharge. The opposite is true for 7 day low flow, maximum snow storage, and soil moisture in the driest month of the growing period. Mean annual streamflow shows the lowest projected percent changes of all indicators. Among country groups, low income countries and lower middle income countries are most affected by decreased low flows and increased high flows, respectively, while high income countries are least affected by such changes. The incremental impact between 1.5 °C and 2 °C on high flows would be felt most by low income and lower middle income countries, the effect on soil moisture and low flows most by high income countries.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab792climate changeglobal water resourcesglobal warming levelhazardrisk |
| spellingShingle | Petra Döll Tim Trautmann Dieter Gerten Hannes Müller Schmied Sebastian Ostberg Fahad Saaed Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming Environmental Research Letters climate change global water resources global warming level hazard risk |
| title | Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming |
| title_full | Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming |
| title_fullStr | Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming |
| title_short | Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming |
| title_sort | risks for the global freshwater system at 1 5 °c and 2 °c global warming |
| topic | climate change global water resources global warming level hazard risk |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab792 |
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