Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean
Most marine plastic pollution originates on land. However, once plastic is at sea, it is difficult to determine its origin. Here we present a Bayesian inference framework to compute the probability that a piece of plastic found at sea came from a particular source. This framework combines informatio...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-07-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437/full |
| _version_ | 1818198044496101376 |
|---|---|
| author | Claudio M. Pierard Deborah Bassotto Florian Meirer Erik van Sebille |
| author_facet | Claudio M. Pierard Deborah Bassotto Florian Meirer Erik van Sebille |
| author_sort | Claudio M. Pierard |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Most marine plastic pollution originates on land. However, once plastic is at sea, it is difficult to determine its origin. Here we present a Bayesian inference framework to compute the probability that a piece of plastic found at sea came from a particular source. This framework combines information about plastic emitted by rivers with a Lagrangian simulation, and yields maps indicating the probability that a particle sampled somewhere in the ocean originates from a particular river source. We showcase the framework for floating river-sourced plastic released into the South Atlantic Ocean. We computed the probability as a function of the particle age at three locations, showing how probabilities vary according to the location and age. We computed the source probability of beached particles, showing that plastic found at a given latitude is most likely to come from the closest river source. This framework lays the basis for source attribution of marine plastic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T01:59:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0569c48526ad4beea37f4bf4451e3786 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T01:59:37Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-0569c48526ad4beea37f4bf4451e37862022-12-22T00:42:12ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452022-07-01910.3389/fmars.2022.925437925437Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic OceanClaudio M. Pierard0Deborah Bassotto1Florian Meirer2Erik van Sebille3Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, NetherlandsInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, NetherlandsInorganic Chemistry and Catalysis, Debye Institute for Nanomaterials Science, Utrecht University, Utrecht, NetherlandsInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, NetherlandsMost marine plastic pollution originates on land. However, once plastic is at sea, it is difficult to determine its origin. Here we present a Bayesian inference framework to compute the probability that a piece of plastic found at sea came from a particular source. This framework combines information about plastic emitted by rivers with a Lagrangian simulation, and yields maps indicating the probability that a particle sampled somewhere in the ocean originates from a particular river source. We showcase the framework for floating river-sourced plastic released into the South Atlantic Ocean. We computed the probability as a function of the particle age at three locations, showing how probabilities vary according to the location and age. We computed the source probability of beached particles, showing that plastic found at a given latitude is most likely to come from the closest river source. This framework lays the basis for source attribution of marine plastic.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437/fullBayesian inferencecirculationplasticSouth AtlanticLagrangian |
| spellingShingle | Claudio M. Pierard Deborah Bassotto Florian Meirer Erik van Sebille Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean Frontiers in Marine Science Bayesian inference circulation plastic South Atlantic Lagrangian |
| title | Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
| title_full | Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
| title_fullStr | Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
| title_short | Attribution of Plastic Sources Using Bayesian Inference: Application to River-Sourced Floating Plastic in the South Atlantic Ocean |
| title_sort | attribution of plastic sources using bayesian inference application to river sourced floating plastic in the south atlantic ocean |
| topic | Bayesian inference circulation plastic South Atlantic Lagrangian |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.925437/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT claudiompierard attributionofplasticsourcesusingbayesianinferenceapplicationtoriversourcedfloatingplasticinthesouthatlanticocean AT deborahbassotto attributionofplasticsourcesusingbayesianinferenceapplicationtoriversourcedfloatingplasticinthesouthatlanticocean AT florianmeirer attributionofplasticsourcesusingbayesianinferenceapplicationtoriversourcedfloatingplasticinthesouthatlanticocean AT erikvansebille attributionofplasticsourcesusingbayesianinferenceapplicationtoriversourcedfloatingplasticinthesouthatlanticocean |