Dynamic vulnerability assessment of maize under low temperature and drought concurrent stress in Songliao Plain
With global climate change, most parts of the world face more than one natural disaster. Field crops must cope with a combination of two or more stresses. System vulnerability has changed, and quantitative vulnerability analysis is imminent and challenging. Based on the crop water surplus deficit in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Agricultural Water Management |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377423002652 |
| _version_ | 1827630414109343744 |
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| author | Yunmeng Zhao Mula Na Ying Guo Xingping Liu Zhijun Tong Jiquan Zhang Chunli Zhao |
| author_facet | Yunmeng Zhao Mula Na Ying Guo Xingping Liu Zhijun Tong Jiquan Zhang Chunli Zhao |
| author_sort | Yunmeng Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | With global climate change, most parts of the world face more than one natural disaster. Field crops must cope with a combination of two or more stresses. System vulnerability has changed, and quantitative vulnerability analysis is imminent and challenging. Based on the crop water surplus deficit index (CWSDI) and low-temperature index (LTC), this study used the copula method to establish a dynamic assessment model of maize vulnerability under different low temperature and drought concurrent stress intensities, finally showed it in two forms of three-dimensional surface and spatial distribution, which was more vivid and comprehensive. The main conclusions are as follows: the peak number of individual events and concurrent events of low temperature and drought is significantly different, the time trend of the number of concurrent events in each growth period is not the same, and the interannual difference is significant; low-temperature severity and maize yield loss rate, low-temperature severity, and drought severity had significant correlation. Based on this, a 3 C-vine-copula model was established and passed the test. The interaction between the joint probability of concurrent event intensity and the loss rate leads to complex changes in vulnerability. When low temperature and drought are concurrent, the vulnerability analysis cannot be simply superimposed by low temperature and drought intensity. The vulnerability distribution of maize at different growth stages in Songliao Plain shows noticeable regional differences. The central and southern parts of the study area are the most vulnerable areas under low-temperature and drought stress. This study’s results can help managers adjust agricultural resources and adopt more effective irrigation policies under combined stress conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:05:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-05711c6fb54b4550a9b8f2d9f5b2a058 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1873-2283 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:05:26Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Water Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-05711c6fb54b4550a9b8f2d9f5b2a0582023-11-30T05:05:38ZengElsevierAgricultural Water Management1873-22832023-08-01286108400Dynamic vulnerability assessment of maize under low temperature and drought concurrent stress in Songliao PlainYunmeng Zhao0Mula Na1Ying Guo2Xingping Liu3Zhijun Tong4Jiquan Zhang5Chunli Zhao6School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China; Jilin Province Science and Technology Innovation Center of Agro-Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China; Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130024, PR China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China; Jilin Province Science and Technology Innovation Center of Agro-Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China; Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130024, PR China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China; Jilin Province Science and Technology Innovation Center of Agro-Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China; Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130024, PR China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China; Jilin Province Science and Technology Innovation Center of Agro-Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China; Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130024, PR China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China; Corresponding author at: School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China.College of Forestry and Grassland, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130024, PR ChinaWith global climate change, most parts of the world face more than one natural disaster. Field crops must cope with a combination of two or more stresses. System vulnerability has changed, and quantitative vulnerability analysis is imminent and challenging. Based on the crop water surplus deficit index (CWSDI) and low-temperature index (LTC), this study used the copula method to establish a dynamic assessment model of maize vulnerability under different low temperature and drought concurrent stress intensities, finally showed it in two forms of three-dimensional surface and spatial distribution, which was more vivid and comprehensive. The main conclusions are as follows: the peak number of individual events and concurrent events of low temperature and drought is significantly different, the time trend of the number of concurrent events in each growth period is not the same, and the interannual difference is significant; low-temperature severity and maize yield loss rate, low-temperature severity, and drought severity had significant correlation. Based on this, a 3 C-vine-copula model was established and passed the test. The interaction between the joint probability of concurrent event intensity and the loss rate leads to complex changes in vulnerability. When low temperature and drought are concurrent, the vulnerability analysis cannot be simply superimposed by low temperature and drought intensity. The vulnerability distribution of maize at different growth stages in Songliao Plain shows noticeable regional differences. The central and southern parts of the study area are the most vulnerable areas under low-temperature and drought stress. This study’s results can help managers adjust agricultural resources and adopt more effective irrigation policies under combined stress conditions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377423002652Low temperature and droughtConcurrent stressVulnerabilityMaizeVine-copula |
| spellingShingle | Yunmeng Zhao Mula Na Ying Guo Xingping Liu Zhijun Tong Jiquan Zhang Chunli Zhao Dynamic vulnerability assessment of maize under low temperature and drought concurrent stress in Songliao Plain Agricultural Water Management Low temperature and drought Concurrent stress Vulnerability Maize Vine-copula |
| title | Dynamic vulnerability assessment of maize under low temperature and drought concurrent stress in Songliao Plain |
| title_full | Dynamic vulnerability assessment of maize under low temperature and drought concurrent stress in Songliao Plain |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic vulnerability assessment of maize under low temperature and drought concurrent stress in Songliao Plain |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic vulnerability assessment of maize under low temperature and drought concurrent stress in Songliao Plain |
| title_short | Dynamic vulnerability assessment of maize under low temperature and drought concurrent stress in Songliao Plain |
| title_sort | dynamic vulnerability assessment of maize under low temperature and drought concurrent stress in songliao plain |
| topic | Low temperature and drought Concurrent stress Vulnerability Maize Vine-copula |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377423002652 |
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