Statistical characterization of full-margin rupture recurrence for Cascadia subduction zone using event time resampling and Gaussian mixture model
Abstract Earthquake occurrence modeling of large subduction events involves significant uncertainty, stemming from the scarcity of geological data and inaccuracy of dating techniques. The previous research on statistical modeling of full-margin ruptures of the Cascadia subduction zone attempted to a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Geoscience Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-023-00306-6 |
| _version_ | 1797559224904974336 |
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| author | Katsuichiro Goda |
| author_facet | Katsuichiro Goda |
| author_sort | Katsuichiro Goda |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Earthquake occurrence modeling of large subduction events involves significant uncertainty, stemming from the scarcity of geological data and inaccuracy of dating techniques. The previous research on statistical modeling of full-margin ruptures of the Cascadia subduction zone attempted to address these issues. However, the adopted resampling method to account for the uncertain marine turbidite age data from the Cascadia subduction zone was not sufficient in the sample size. This study presents a statistical approach based on the Gaussian mixture model applied to significantly larger resampled Cascadia age data. The results suggest that the 3-component Gaussian mixture model outperforms the 2-component Gaussian mixture model and the 1-component renewal models by capturing the long gap and short-term clustering. The developed Gaussian mixture model is well suited to apply to probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis and the calculation of long-term probability of the future full-margin Cascadia events by considering the elapsed time since the last event. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:42:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-05c8849e441e493f873e7217fb6aecb2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2196-4092 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:42:21Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscience Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-05c8849e441e493f873e7217fb6aecb22023-11-20T09:37:44ZengSpringerOpenGeoscience Letters2196-40922023-11-011011910.1186/s40562-023-00306-6Statistical characterization of full-margin rupture recurrence for Cascadia subduction zone using event time resampling and Gaussian mixture modelKatsuichiro Goda0Department of Earth Sciences, Western UniversityAbstract Earthquake occurrence modeling of large subduction events involves significant uncertainty, stemming from the scarcity of geological data and inaccuracy of dating techniques. The previous research on statistical modeling of full-margin ruptures of the Cascadia subduction zone attempted to address these issues. However, the adopted resampling method to account for the uncertain marine turbidite age data from the Cascadia subduction zone was not sufficient in the sample size. This study presents a statistical approach based on the Gaussian mixture model applied to significantly larger resampled Cascadia age data. The results suggest that the 3-component Gaussian mixture model outperforms the 2-component Gaussian mixture model and the 1-component renewal models by capturing the long gap and short-term clustering. The developed Gaussian mixture model is well suited to apply to probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis and the calculation of long-term probability of the future full-margin Cascadia events by considering the elapsed time since the last event.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-023-00306-6Cascadia subduction earthquakesGaussian mixture modelInter-arrival timesData uncertainty |
| spellingShingle | Katsuichiro Goda Statistical characterization of full-margin rupture recurrence for Cascadia subduction zone using event time resampling and Gaussian mixture model Geoscience Letters Cascadia subduction earthquakes Gaussian mixture model Inter-arrival times Data uncertainty |
| title | Statistical characterization of full-margin rupture recurrence for Cascadia subduction zone using event time resampling and Gaussian mixture model |
| title_full | Statistical characterization of full-margin rupture recurrence for Cascadia subduction zone using event time resampling and Gaussian mixture model |
| title_fullStr | Statistical characterization of full-margin rupture recurrence for Cascadia subduction zone using event time resampling and Gaussian mixture model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistical characterization of full-margin rupture recurrence for Cascadia subduction zone using event time resampling and Gaussian mixture model |
| title_short | Statistical characterization of full-margin rupture recurrence for Cascadia subduction zone using event time resampling and Gaussian mixture model |
| title_sort | statistical characterization of full margin rupture recurrence for cascadia subduction zone using event time resampling and gaussian mixture model |
| topic | Cascadia subduction earthquakes Gaussian mixture model Inter-arrival times Data uncertainty |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-023-00306-6 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT katsuichirogoda statisticalcharacterizationoffullmarginrupturerecurrenceforcascadiasubductionzoneusingeventtimeresamplingandgaussianmixturemodel |