ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world
<p>A new reanalysis-based approach is proposed to examine how extreme weather events differ in a warmer or cooler counter-factual world. This approach offers a novel way to develop plausible storylines for some types of extreme event that other methods may not be suitable for. As a proof-of-co...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1081/2023/esd-14-1081-2023.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>A new reanalysis-based approach is proposed to examine how extreme weather events differ in a warmer or cooler counter-factual world. This approach offers a novel way to develop plausible storylines for some types of extreme event that other methods may not be suitable for. As a proof-of-concept, a reanalysis of a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 is translated into a warmer world where it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |