Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change
Abstract Climate change is expected to threaten endemic plants in the Alps. In this context, the factors that may modulate species responses are rarely investigated at a local scale. We analyzed eight alpine narrow endemics of the Dolomites (southeastern Alps) under different predicted climate chang...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05440-3 |
| _version_ | 1819231555532357632 |
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| author | Francesco Rota Gabriele Casazza Giulio Genova Gabriele Midolo Filippo Prosser Alessio Bertolli Thomas Wilhalm Juri Nascimbene Camilla Wellstein |
| author_facet | Francesco Rota Gabriele Casazza Giulio Genova Gabriele Midolo Filippo Prosser Alessio Bertolli Thomas Wilhalm Juri Nascimbene Camilla Wellstein |
| author_sort | Francesco Rota |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change is expected to threaten endemic plants in the Alps. In this context, the factors that may modulate species responses are rarely investigated at a local scale. We analyzed eight alpine narrow endemics of the Dolomites (southeastern Alps) under different predicted climate change scenarios at fine spatial resolutions. We tested possible differences in elevation, topographic heterogeneity and velocity of climate change among areas of gained, lost, or stable climatic habitat. The negative impact of climate change ranged from moderate to severe, depending on scenario and species. Generally, range loss occurred at the lowest elevations, while gained and stable areas were located at highest elevations. For six of the species, climate change velocity had higher values in stable and gained areas than in lost ones. Our findings support the role of topographic heterogeneity in maintaining climatic microrefugia, however, the peculiar topography of the Dolomites, characterized by high altitude plateaus, resulted in high climate change velocity in areas of projected future climatic suitability. Our study supports the usefulness of multiple predictors of spatio-temporal range dynamics for regional climate-adapted management and eventual assisted colonization planning to not overlook or overestimate the potential impact of climate change locally. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T11:46:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-05eed4577a1840a28a81dfe9a13ae4e2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T11:46:50Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-05eed4577a1840a28a81dfe9a13ae4e22022-12-21T17:48:20ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-01-0112111210.1038/s41598-022-05440-3Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate changeFrancesco Rota0Gabriele Casazza1Giulio Genova2Gabriele Midolo3Filippo Prosser4Alessio Bertolli5Thomas Wilhalm6Juri Nascimbene7Camilla Wellstein8Faculty of Science and Technology, Free University of Bozen‐BolzanoDipartimento di Scienze della terra, dell’Ambiente e della Vita, Università Di GenovaFaculty of Science and Technology, Free University of Bozen‐BolzanoFaculty of Science and Technology, Free University of Bozen‐BolzanoFondazione Museo Civico Di RoveretoFondazione Museo Civico Di RoveretoMuseum of Nature South TyrolBIOME Lab, Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum, University of BolognaFaculty of Science and Technology, Free University of Bozen‐BolzanoAbstract Climate change is expected to threaten endemic plants in the Alps. In this context, the factors that may modulate species responses are rarely investigated at a local scale. We analyzed eight alpine narrow endemics of the Dolomites (southeastern Alps) under different predicted climate change scenarios at fine spatial resolutions. We tested possible differences in elevation, topographic heterogeneity and velocity of climate change among areas of gained, lost, or stable climatic habitat. The negative impact of climate change ranged from moderate to severe, depending on scenario and species. Generally, range loss occurred at the lowest elevations, while gained and stable areas were located at highest elevations. For six of the species, climate change velocity had higher values in stable and gained areas than in lost ones. Our findings support the role of topographic heterogeneity in maintaining climatic microrefugia, however, the peculiar topography of the Dolomites, characterized by high altitude plateaus, resulted in high climate change velocity in areas of projected future climatic suitability. Our study supports the usefulness of multiple predictors of spatio-temporal range dynamics for regional climate-adapted management and eventual assisted colonization planning to not overlook or overestimate the potential impact of climate change locally.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05440-3 |
| spellingShingle | Francesco Rota Gabriele Casazza Giulio Genova Gabriele Midolo Filippo Prosser Alessio Bertolli Thomas Wilhalm Juri Nascimbene Camilla Wellstein Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change Scientific Reports |
| title | Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change |
| title_full | Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change |
| title_short | Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change |
| title_sort | topography of the dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05440-3 |
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