Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study
This modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period o...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/11/376 |
| _version_ | 1827643548566028288 |
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| author | Shu-Chen Kuo Byron Fan Hongye Zhu Meng-Hsuan Wu Fang-Jing Lee Yu-Chieh Cheng Hsiao-Yu Wu Ya-Ting Hsu Chao A. Hsiung Shiow-Ing Wu Wei J. Chen Hung-Yi Chiou Huey-Kang Sytwu Hsiao-Hui Tsou |
| author_facet | Shu-Chen Kuo Byron Fan Hongye Zhu Meng-Hsuan Wu Fang-Jing Lee Yu-Chieh Cheng Hsiao-Yu Wu Ya-Ting Hsu Chao A. Hsiung Shiow-Ing Wu Wei J. Chen Hung-Yi Chiou Huey-Kang Sytwu Hsiao-Hui Tsou |
| author_sort | Shu-Chen Kuo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period of the ancestral SARS-Cov-2 virus, contact tracing alone is insufficient to achieve outbreak control. Although universal testing is proposed in multiple nations, its effectiveness accompanied by other measures is rarely examined. Our research investigates the necessity of universal testing when contact tracing and symptomatic screening measures are implemented. We used a stochastic transmission model to simulate COVID-19 transmission, evaluating containment strategies via contact tracing, one-time high risk symptomatic testing, and universal testing. Despite universal testing having the potential to identify subclinical cases, which is crucial for non-pharmaceutical interventions, our model suggests that universal testing only reduces the total number of cases by 0.0009% for countries with low COVID-19 prevalence and 0.025% for countries with high COVID-19 prevalence when rigorous contact tracing and symptomatic screening are also implemented. These findings highlight the effectiveness of testing strategies and contact tracing in reducing COVID-19 cases by identifying subclinical cases. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:56:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-05fa7c6ac8804726b46ec9a61137981f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2414-6366 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:56:47Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
| spelling | doaj.art-05fa7c6ac8804726b46ec9a61137981f2023-11-24T10:15:45ZengMDPI AGTropical Medicine and Infectious Disease2414-63662022-11-0171137610.3390/tropicalmed7110376Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling StudyShu-Chen Kuo0Byron Fan1Hongye Zhu2Meng-Hsuan Wu3Fang-Jing Lee4Yu-Chieh Cheng5Hsiao-Yu Wu6Ya-Ting Hsu7Chao A. Hsiung8Shiow-Ing Wu9Wei J. Chen10Hung-Yi Chiou11Huey-Kang Sytwu12Hsiao-Hui Tsou13National Institute of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USADepartment of Public Health, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, TaiwanInstitute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanInstitute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanInstitute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanInstitute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanInstitute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanInstitute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanInstitute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanCenter for Neuropsychiatric Research, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanInstitute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanNational Institute of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanInstitute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan 35053, TaiwanThis modeling study considers different screening strategies, contact tracing, and the severity of novel epidemic outbreaks for various population sizes, providing insight into multinational containment effectiveness of emerging infectious diseases, prior to vaccines development. During the period of the ancestral SARS-Cov-2 virus, contact tracing alone is insufficient to achieve outbreak control. Although universal testing is proposed in multiple nations, its effectiveness accompanied by other measures is rarely examined. Our research investigates the necessity of universal testing when contact tracing and symptomatic screening measures are implemented. We used a stochastic transmission model to simulate COVID-19 transmission, evaluating containment strategies via contact tracing, one-time high risk symptomatic testing, and universal testing. Despite universal testing having the potential to identify subclinical cases, which is crucial for non-pharmaceutical interventions, our model suggests that universal testing only reduces the total number of cases by 0.0009% for countries with low COVID-19 prevalence and 0.025% for countries with high COVID-19 prevalence when rigorous contact tracing and symptomatic screening are also implemented. These findings highlight the effectiveness of testing strategies and contact tracing in reducing COVID-19 cases by identifying subclinical cases.https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/11/376COVID-19SARS-CoV-2universal testingcontact tracingsymptomatic screening |
| spellingShingle | Shu-Chen Kuo Byron Fan Hongye Zhu Meng-Hsuan Wu Fang-Jing Lee Yu-Chieh Cheng Hsiao-Yu Wu Ya-Ting Hsu Chao A. Hsiung Shiow-Ing Wu Wei J. Chen Hung-Yi Chiou Huey-Kang Sytwu Hsiao-Hui Tsou Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 universal testing contact tracing symptomatic screening |
| title | Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
| title_full | Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
| title_fullStr | Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
| title_short | Contribution of Testing Strategies and Contact Tracing towards COVID-19 Outbreaks Control: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
| title_sort | contribution of testing strategies and contact tracing towards covid 19 outbreaks control a mathematical modeling study |
| topic | COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 universal testing contact tracing symptomatic screening |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/11/376 |
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