Spatiotemporal characteristics and primary influencing factors of typical dengue fever epidemics in China
Abstract Background Dengue fever (DF) is a common mosquito-borne viral infectious disease in the world, and increasingly severe DF epidemics in China have seriously affected people’s health in recent years. Thus, investigating spatiotemporal patterns and potential influencing factors of DF epidemics...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-019-0533-9 |
| _version_ | 1818821614297415680 |
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| author | Lan Zheng Hong-Yan Ren Run-He Shi Liang Lu |
| author_facet | Lan Zheng Hong-Yan Ren Run-He Shi Liang Lu |
| author_sort | Lan Zheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Dengue fever (DF) is a common mosquito-borne viral infectious disease in the world, and increasingly severe DF epidemics in China have seriously affected people’s health in recent years. Thus, investigating spatiotemporal patterns and potential influencing factors of DF epidemics in typical regions is critical to consolidate effective prevention and control measures for these regional epidemics. Methods A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to identify potential contributing factors that influence spatiotemporal epidemic patterns in typical DF epidemic regions of China (e.g., the Pearl River Delta [PRD] and the Border of Yunnan and Myanmar [BYM]). In terms of influencing factors, environmental factors including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, and humidity, in conjunction with socioeconomic factors, such as population density (Pop), road density, land-use, and gross domestic product, were employed. Results DF epidemics in the PRD and BYM exhibit prominent spatial variations at 4 km and 3 km grid scales, characterized by significant spatial clustering over the Guangzhou-Foshan, Dehong, and Xishuangbanna areas. The GAM that integrated the Pop-urban land ratio (ULR)-NDVI-humidity-temperature factors for the PRD and the ULR-Road density-NDVI-temperature-water land ratio-precipitation factors for the BYM performed well in terms of overall accuracy, with Akaike Information Criterion values of 61 859.89 and 826.65, explaining a total variance of 83.4 and 97.3%, respectively. As indicated, socioeconomic factors have a stronger influence on DF epidemics than environmental factors in the study area. Among these factors, Pop (PRD) and ULR (BYM) were the socioeconomic factors explaining the largest variance in regional epidemics, whereas NDVI was the environmental factor explaining the largest variance in both regions. In addition, the common factors (ULR, NDVI, and temperature) in these two regions exhibited different effects on regional epidemics. Conclusions The spatiotemporal patterns of DF in the PRD and BYM are influenced by environmental and socioeconomic factors, the socioeconomic factors may play a significant role in DF epidemics in cases where environmental factors are suitable and differ only slightly throughout an area. Thus, prevention and control resources should be fully allocated by referring to the spatial patterns of primary influencing factors to better consolidate the prevention and control measures for DF epidemics. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T23:10:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0606701101ae4d3493bc94225dceccf8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2049-9957 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T23:10:59Z |
| publishDate | 2019-03-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
| spelling | doaj.art-0606701101ae4d3493bc94225dceccf82022-12-21T20:48:20ZengBMCInfectious Diseases of Poverty2049-99572019-03-018111210.1186/s40249-019-0533-9Spatiotemporal characteristics and primary influencing factors of typical dengue fever epidemics in ChinaLan Zheng0Hong-Yan Ren1Run-He Shi2Liang Lu3Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesKey Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal UniversityDepartment of Vector Biology and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Natural Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionAbstract Background Dengue fever (DF) is a common mosquito-borne viral infectious disease in the world, and increasingly severe DF epidemics in China have seriously affected people’s health in recent years. Thus, investigating spatiotemporal patterns and potential influencing factors of DF epidemics in typical regions is critical to consolidate effective prevention and control measures for these regional epidemics. Methods A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to identify potential contributing factors that influence spatiotemporal epidemic patterns in typical DF epidemic regions of China (e.g., the Pearl River Delta [PRD] and the Border of Yunnan and Myanmar [BYM]). In terms of influencing factors, environmental factors including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, and humidity, in conjunction with socioeconomic factors, such as population density (Pop), road density, land-use, and gross domestic product, were employed. Results DF epidemics in the PRD and BYM exhibit prominent spatial variations at 4 km and 3 km grid scales, characterized by significant spatial clustering over the Guangzhou-Foshan, Dehong, and Xishuangbanna areas. The GAM that integrated the Pop-urban land ratio (ULR)-NDVI-humidity-temperature factors for the PRD and the ULR-Road density-NDVI-temperature-water land ratio-precipitation factors for the BYM performed well in terms of overall accuracy, with Akaike Information Criterion values of 61 859.89 and 826.65, explaining a total variance of 83.4 and 97.3%, respectively. As indicated, socioeconomic factors have a stronger influence on DF epidemics than environmental factors in the study area. Among these factors, Pop (PRD) and ULR (BYM) were the socioeconomic factors explaining the largest variance in regional epidemics, whereas NDVI was the environmental factor explaining the largest variance in both regions. In addition, the common factors (ULR, NDVI, and temperature) in these two regions exhibited different effects on regional epidemics. Conclusions The spatiotemporal patterns of DF in the PRD and BYM are influenced by environmental and socioeconomic factors, the socioeconomic factors may play a significant role in DF epidemics in cases where environmental factors are suitable and differ only slightly throughout an area. Thus, prevention and control resources should be fully allocated by referring to the spatial patterns of primary influencing factors to better consolidate the prevention and control measures for DF epidemics.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-019-0533-9Spatiotemporal patternChinaDengue feverGeneralized additive modelSocioeconomic factorEnvironmental factor |
| spellingShingle | Lan Zheng Hong-Yan Ren Run-He Shi Liang Lu Spatiotemporal characteristics and primary influencing factors of typical dengue fever epidemics in China Infectious Diseases of Poverty Spatiotemporal pattern China Dengue fever Generalized additive model Socioeconomic factor Environmental factor |
| title | Spatiotemporal characteristics and primary influencing factors of typical dengue fever epidemics in China |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal characteristics and primary influencing factors of typical dengue fever epidemics in China |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal characteristics and primary influencing factors of typical dengue fever epidemics in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal characteristics and primary influencing factors of typical dengue fever epidemics in China |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal characteristics and primary influencing factors of typical dengue fever epidemics in China |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal characteristics and primary influencing factors of typical dengue fever epidemics in china |
| topic | Spatiotemporal pattern China Dengue fever Generalized additive model Socioeconomic factor Environmental factor |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-019-0533-9 |
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