Development of nomograms to predict recurrence after conversion hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma previously treated with transarterial interventional therapy
Abstract Background Lack of opportunity for radical surgery and postoperative tumor recurrence are challenges for surgeons and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. This study aimed to develop nomograms to predict recurrence risk and recurrence-free survival (RFS) probability after conversion hep...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2023-09-01
|
| Series: | European Journal of Medical Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-023-01310-4 |
| _version_ | 1797453452935168000 |
|---|---|
| author | Min Deng Rongce Zhao Renguo Guan Shaohua Li Zhijun Zuo Wenping Lin Wei Wei Rongping Guo |
| author_facet | Min Deng Rongce Zhao Renguo Guan Shaohua Li Zhijun Zuo Wenping Lin Wei Wei Rongping Guo |
| author_sort | Min Deng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Lack of opportunity for radical surgery and postoperative tumor recurrence are challenges for surgeons and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. This study aimed to develop nomograms to predict recurrence risk and recurrence-free survival (RFS) probability after conversion hepatectomy for patients previously receiving transarterial interventional therapy. Methods In total, 261 HCC patients who underwent conversion liver resection and previously received transarterial interventional therapy were retrospectively enrolled. Nomograms to predict recurrence risk and RFS were developed, with discriminative ability and calibration evaluated by C-statistics, calibration plots, and the Area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (AUROC) curves. Results Univariate/multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were used to identify predictive factors for recurrence risk and RFS, respectively. The following factors were selected as predictive of recurrence: age, tumor number, microvascular invasion (MVI) grade, preoperative alpha‐fetoprotein (AFP), preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score (ECOG PS). Similarly, age, tumor number, postoperative AFP, postoperative protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), and ECOG PS were incorporated for the prediction of RFS. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms revealed good predictive ability. Calibration plots showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions of recurrence and RFS and the actual observations. Conclusions A pair of reliable nomograms was developed to predict recurrence and RFS in HCC patients after conversion resection who previously received transarterial interventional therapy. These predictive models can be used as guidance for clinicians to help with treatment strategies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:23:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-061af6154b364648ac6bda9ac5c79fc3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2047-783X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:23:02Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | European Journal of Medical Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-061af6154b364648ac6bda9ac5c79fc32023-11-26T12:42:11ZengBMCEuropean Journal of Medical Research2047-783X2023-09-0128111110.1186/s40001-023-01310-4Development of nomograms to predict recurrence after conversion hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma previously treated with transarterial interventional therapyMin Deng0Rongce Zhao1Renguo Guan2Shaohua Li3Zhijun Zuo4Wenping Lin5Wei Wei6Rongping Guo7Department of Liver Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Liver Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Liver Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Liver Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Liver Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Liver Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Liver Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterDepartment of Liver Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer CenterAbstract Background Lack of opportunity for radical surgery and postoperative tumor recurrence are challenges for surgeons and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. This study aimed to develop nomograms to predict recurrence risk and recurrence-free survival (RFS) probability after conversion hepatectomy for patients previously receiving transarterial interventional therapy. Methods In total, 261 HCC patients who underwent conversion liver resection and previously received transarterial interventional therapy were retrospectively enrolled. Nomograms to predict recurrence risk and RFS were developed, with discriminative ability and calibration evaluated by C-statistics, calibration plots, and the Area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (AUROC) curves. Results Univariate/multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were used to identify predictive factors for recurrence risk and RFS, respectively. The following factors were selected as predictive of recurrence: age, tumor number, microvascular invasion (MVI) grade, preoperative alpha‐fetoprotein (AFP), preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score (ECOG PS). Similarly, age, tumor number, postoperative AFP, postoperative protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), and ECOG PS were incorporated for the prediction of RFS. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms revealed good predictive ability. Calibration plots showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions of recurrence and RFS and the actual observations. Conclusions A pair of reliable nomograms was developed to predict recurrence and RFS in HCC patients after conversion resection who previously received transarterial interventional therapy. These predictive models can be used as guidance for clinicians to help with treatment strategies.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-023-01310-4Hepatocellular carcinomaConversionHepatectomyRecurrenceNomogram |
| spellingShingle | Min Deng Rongce Zhao Renguo Guan Shaohua Li Zhijun Zuo Wenping Lin Wei Wei Rongping Guo Development of nomograms to predict recurrence after conversion hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma previously treated with transarterial interventional therapy European Journal of Medical Research Hepatocellular carcinoma Conversion Hepatectomy Recurrence Nomogram |
| title | Development of nomograms to predict recurrence after conversion hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma previously treated with transarterial interventional therapy |
| title_full | Development of nomograms to predict recurrence after conversion hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma previously treated with transarterial interventional therapy |
| title_fullStr | Development of nomograms to predict recurrence after conversion hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma previously treated with transarterial interventional therapy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of nomograms to predict recurrence after conversion hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma previously treated with transarterial interventional therapy |
| title_short | Development of nomograms to predict recurrence after conversion hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma previously treated with transarterial interventional therapy |
| title_sort | development of nomograms to predict recurrence after conversion hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma previously treated with transarterial interventional therapy |
| topic | Hepatocellular carcinoma Conversion Hepatectomy Recurrence Nomogram |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-023-01310-4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mindeng developmentofnomogramstopredictrecurrenceafterconversionhepatectomyforhepatocellularcarcinomapreviouslytreatedwithtransarterialinterventionaltherapy AT rongcezhao developmentofnomogramstopredictrecurrenceafterconversionhepatectomyforhepatocellularcarcinomapreviouslytreatedwithtransarterialinterventionaltherapy AT renguoguan developmentofnomogramstopredictrecurrenceafterconversionhepatectomyforhepatocellularcarcinomapreviouslytreatedwithtransarterialinterventionaltherapy AT shaohuali developmentofnomogramstopredictrecurrenceafterconversionhepatectomyforhepatocellularcarcinomapreviouslytreatedwithtransarterialinterventionaltherapy AT zhijunzuo developmentofnomogramstopredictrecurrenceafterconversionhepatectomyforhepatocellularcarcinomapreviouslytreatedwithtransarterialinterventionaltherapy AT wenpinglin developmentofnomogramstopredictrecurrenceafterconversionhepatectomyforhepatocellularcarcinomapreviouslytreatedwithtransarterialinterventionaltherapy AT weiwei developmentofnomogramstopredictrecurrenceafterconversionhepatectomyforhepatocellularcarcinomapreviouslytreatedwithtransarterialinterventionaltherapy AT rongpingguo developmentofnomogramstopredictrecurrenceafterconversionhepatectomyforhepatocellularcarcinomapreviouslytreatedwithtransarterialinterventionaltherapy |