The efect of the financial crisis on Croatia ’s primary budget deficit and public debt
movements and sustainability of the public debt in the period up to 2013. It is shown that changes in the public debt come from the effect of the primary deficit created, stockflow adjustment, the real growth of the GDP and real interest rates. On the basis of results of the European Communities (20...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Institute of Public Finance
2009-09-01
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| Series: | Financial Theory and Practice |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.ijf.hr/eng/FTP/2009/3/sopek.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818529187266297856 |
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| author | Petar Sopek |
| author_facet | Petar Sopek |
| author_sort | Petar Sopek |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | movements and sustainability of the public debt in the period up to 2013. It is shown that changes in the public debt come from the effect of the primary deficit created, stockflow adjustment, the real growth of the GDP and real interest rates. On the basis of results of the European Communities (2009) a statistical estimate is given of the trends in the primary deficit for EU-12, after which the model is adjusted to Croatian figures. The projection of stock-flow adjustment is undertaken from a projection of the primary deficit, due to the relatively strong negative correlation between those two variables in the past, whilst the projection of the real growth rate of the GDP and real interest rates is significantly simplified. The main hypothesis tested is that the ratio of the public debt in the GDP up to 2013 does not exceed the margin of sustainability prescribed in the Maastricht criterion of 60%, which is finally confirmed by this analysis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T17:03:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0634966fee964e0087ac030b28328ea7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1846-887X 1845-9757 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T17:03:43Z |
| publishDate | 2009-09-01 |
| publisher | Institute of Public Finance |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Financial Theory and Practice |
| spelling | doaj.art-0634966fee964e0087ac030b28328ea72022-12-22T00:57:45ZengInstitute of Public FinanceFinancial Theory and Practice1846-887X1845-97572009-09-01333273298The efect of the financial crisis on Croatia ’s primary budget deficit and public debtPetar Sopekmovements and sustainability of the public debt in the period up to 2013. It is shown that changes in the public debt come from the effect of the primary deficit created, stockflow adjustment, the real growth of the GDP and real interest rates. On the basis of results of the European Communities (2009) a statistical estimate is given of the trends in the primary deficit for EU-12, after which the model is adjusted to Croatian figures. The projection of stock-flow adjustment is undertaken from a projection of the primary deficit, due to the relatively strong negative correlation between those two variables in the past, whilst the projection of the real growth rate of the GDP and real interest rates is significantly simplified. The main hypothesis tested is that the ratio of the public debt in the GDP up to 2013 does not exceed the margin of sustainability prescribed in the Maastricht criterion of 60%, which is finally confirmed by this analysis.http://www.ijf.hr/eng/FTP/2009/3/sopek.pdfpublic debtfiscal sustainabilityprimary deficitstock-flow adjustmentthe Croatian economy |
| spellingShingle | Petar Sopek The efect of the financial crisis on Croatia ’s primary budget deficit and public debt Financial Theory and Practice public debt fiscal sustainability primary deficit stock-flow adjustment the Croatian economy |
| title | The efect of the financial crisis on Croatia ’s primary budget deficit and public debt |
| title_full | The efect of the financial crisis on Croatia ’s primary budget deficit and public debt |
| title_fullStr | The efect of the financial crisis on Croatia ’s primary budget deficit and public debt |
| title_full_unstemmed | The efect of the financial crisis on Croatia ’s primary budget deficit and public debt |
| title_short | The efect of the financial crisis on Croatia ’s primary budget deficit and public debt |
| title_sort | efect of the financial crisis on croatia s primary budget deficit and public debt |
| topic | public debt fiscal sustainability primary deficit stock-flow adjustment the Croatian economy |
| url | http://www.ijf.hr/eng/FTP/2009/3/sopek.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT petarsopek theefectofthefinancialcrisisoncroatiasprimarybudgetdeficitandpublicdebt AT petarsopek efectofthefinancialcrisisoncroatiasprimarybudgetdeficitandpublicdebt |