Predicting the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment using modeling approach
Purpose - Groundwater is an important source of water supply in arid and semi-arid areas. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment in Ilam Province, west of Iran. Design/methodology/approach - A three-dimensional transient gr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Emerald Publishing
2018-12-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management |
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| Online Access: | https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2017-0085 |
| _version_ | 1828155107488825344 |
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| author | Reza Ghazavi Haidar Ebrahimi |
| author_facet | Reza Ghazavi Haidar Ebrahimi |
| author_sort | Reza Ghazavi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Purpose - Groundwater is an important source of water supply in arid and semi-arid areas. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment in Ilam Province, west of Iran. Design/methodology/approach - A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model (modular finite difference groundwater FLOW model: MODFLOW) was used to simulate the impacts of three climate scenarios (i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall) on groundwater recharge and groundwater levels. Various climate scenarios in Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator were applied to predict weather data. Findings - HadCM3 climatic model and A2 emission scenario were selected as the best methods for weather data generation. Based on the results of these models, annual precipitation will decrease by 3 per cent during 2015-2030. For three emission scenarios, i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall, precipitation in 2030 is estimated to be 265, 257 and 247 mm, respectively. For the studied aquifer, predicted recharge will decrease compared to recharge calculated based on the average of long-term rainfall. Originality/value - The decline of groundwater level in the study area was 11.45 m during the past 24 years or 0.48 m/year. Annual groundwater depletion should increase to 0.75 m in the coming 16 years via climate change. Climate change adaptation policies in the basin should include changing the crop type, as well as water productivity and irrigation efficiency enhancement at the farm and regional scales. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:48:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0635f01bfa82470898cc525ca0ce3d5b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1756-8692 1756-8706 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T22:48:36Z |
| publishDate | 2018-12-01 |
| publisher | Emerald Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-0635f01bfa82470898cc525ca0ce3d5b2022-12-22T03:58:38ZengEmerald PublishingInternational Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management1756-86921756-87062018-12-01111889910.1108/IJCCSM-04-2017-0085607932Predicting the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment using modeling approachReza Ghazavi0Haidar Ebrahimi1Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, IranDepartment of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, IranPurpose - Groundwater is an important source of water supply in arid and semi-arid areas. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment in Ilam Province, west of Iran. Design/methodology/approach - A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model (modular finite difference groundwater FLOW model: MODFLOW) was used to simulate the impacts of three climate scenarios (i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall) on groundwater recharge and groundwater levels. Various climate scenarios in Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator were applied to predict weather data. Findings - HadCM3 climatic model and A2 emission scenario were selected as the best methods for weather data generation. Based on the results of these models, annual precipitation will decrease by 3 per cent during 2015-2030. For three emission scenarios, i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall, precipitation in 2030 is estimated to be 265, 257 and 247 mm, respectively. For the studied aquifer, predicted recharge will decrease compared to recharge calculated based on the average of long-term rainfall. Originality/value - The decline of groundwater level in the study area was 11.45 m during the past 24 years or 0.48 m/year. Annual groundwater depletion should increase to 0.75 m in the coming 16 years via climate change. Climate change adaptation policies in the basin should include changing the crop type, as well as water productivity and irrigation efficiency enhancement at the farm and regional scales.https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2017-0085Climate changeArid environmentGroundwater rechargeLARSMODFLOW |
| spellingShingle | Reza Ghazavi Haidar Ebrahimi Predicting the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment using modeling approach International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management Climate change Arid environment Groundwater recharge LARS MODFLOW |
| title | Predicting the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment using modeling approach |
| title_full | Predicting the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment using modeling approach |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment using modeling approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment using modeling approach |
| title_short | Predicting the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment using modeling approach |
| title_sort | predicting the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment using modeling approach |
| topic | Climate change Arid environment Groundwater recharge LARS MODFLOW |
| url | https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2017-0085 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rezaghazavi predictingtheimpactsofclimatechangeongroundwaterrechargeinanaridenvironmentusingmodelingapproach AT haidarebrahimi predictingtheimpactsofclimatechangeongroundwaterrechargeinanaridenvironmentusingmodelingapproach |