FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND FORECASTING OF FOOD PRODUCTION USING ECONOMIC DESCRIPTION MODELING METHODS
Abstract. The article considers the financial programs used by the state to support food production based on the use of methods of economic descriptive modeling. It is established that the interpretation of the essence and strategy of financing in practice has quite different approaches. It has bee...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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FINTECH Alliance LLC
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Фінансово-кредитна діяльність: проблеми теорії та практики |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://fkd.net.ua/index.php/fkd/article/view/3549 |
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| author | І. Rumyk S. Laptev S. Seheda L. Akimova O. Akimov M. Karpa |
| author_facet | І. Rumyk S. Laptev S. Seheda L. Akimova O. Akimov M. Karpa |
| author_sort | І. Rumyk |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Abstract. The article considers the financial programs used by the state to support food production based on the use of methods of economic descriptive modeling. It is established that the interpretation of the essence and strategy of financing in practice has quite different approaches. It has been proven that the formation of an effective system of financing food production involves the relationship and effective redistribution between different sources of financial resources. It is substantiated that agriculture has all the prerequisites for productivity growth provided that investment in the Ukrainian agricultural sector increases and effective budget financing. In this regard, the features of food production based on the use of descriptive modeling capabilities using the software package Statgraphics XVII Centurion. Because of the analysis, it is established that the main parametric criterion, which depends on the level of food production in the country as a whole and individual regions, determines the indicator of agricultural production, quantitative parameters of which are taken as a basis for calculating self-sufficiency, import coverage, calories, consumption, profitability and others. Estimation of this indicator by means of modeling allowed to make the forecast of dynamics of change of its volumes for the next twelve time periods for the purpose of preliminary definition of level of food production. For this purpose, the economic and mathematical tools of estimation of forecast dynamics of change of volumes of agricultural production for the future periods are used. Modeling of the indicator of agricultural production per person per year was carried out by research on the normality of distribution using Kolmogorov —Smirnov, Anderson — Darling compliance tests and a modified Kolmogorov — Smirnov test. According to the results of comparative analysis of seventeen different models and five compliance tests, it was found that most of the statistical tests are quadratic model, based on which the projected volumes of agricultural production per person per year and calculated for each forecast year (period) with a reliability of 95% lower and upper limits of the studied indicator. It is established that by 2030 in Ukraine with a high probability the growth trend of agricultural production will continue, and at a high rate. The article outlines the benefits of using economic modeling methods in the study of a particular problem.
Keywords: financial programs, financial support, food production, forecasting methods, economic modeling, national economy.
JEL Classification B41, C33, C53, G32, E62
Formulas: 0; fig.: 6; tabl.: 4; bibl.: 42.
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| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T10:41:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-06b11ca077cd4b28957677e89af6e7c9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-4994 2310-8770 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T10:41:18Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | FINTECH Alliance LLC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Фінансово-кредитна діяльність: проблеми теорії та практики |
| spelling | doaj.art-06b11ca077cd4b28957677e89af6e7c92023-09-02T08:07:06ZengFINTECH Alliance LLCФінансово-кредитна діяльність: проблеми теорії та практики2306-49942310-87702021-11-0154010.18371/fcaptp.v5i40.245098FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND FORECASTING OF FOOD PRODUCTION USING ECONOMIC DESCRIPTION MODELING METHODSІ. Rumyk0S. Laptev 1S. Seheda 2L. Akimova 3O. Akimov 4M. Karpa 5KROK UniversityKROK UniversityVasyl’ Stus Donetsk National UniversityNational University of Water and Environmental EngineeringInterregional Academy of Personnel ManagementNational Academy of Public Administration under the President of Ukraine Abstract. The article considers the financial programs used by the state to support food production based on the use of methods of economic descriptive modeling. It is established that the interpretation of the essence and strategy of financing in practice has quite different approaches. It has been proven that the formation of an effective system of financing food production involves the relationship and effective redistribution between different sources of financial resources. It is substantiated that agriculture has all the prerequisites for productivity growth provided that investment in the Ukrainian agricultural sector increases and effective budget financing. In this regard, the features of food production based on the use of descriptive modeling capabilities using the software package Statgraphics XVII Centurion. Because of the analysis, it is established that the main parametric criterion, which depends on the level of food production in the country as a whole and individual regions, determines the indicator of agricultural production, quantitative parameters of which are taken as a basis for calculating self-sufficiency, import coverage, calories, consumption, profitability and others. Estimation of this indicator by means of modeling allowed to make the forecast of dynamics of change of its volumes for the next twelve time periods for the purpose of preliminary definition of level of food production. For this purpose, the economic and mathematical tools of estimation of forecast dynamics of change of volumes of agricultural production for the future periods are used. Modeling of the indicator of agricultural production per person per year was carried out by research on the normality of distribution using Kolmogorov —Smirnov, Anderson — Darling compliance tests and a modified Kolmogorov — Smirnov test. According to the results of comparative analysis of seventeen different models and five compliance tests, it was found that most of the statistical tests are quadratic model, based on which the projected volumes of agricultural production per person per year and calculated for each forecast year (period) with a reliability of 95% lower and upper limits of the studied indicator. It is established that by 2030 in Ukraine with a high probability the growth trend of agricultural production will continue, and at a high rate. The article outlines the benefits of using economic modeling methods in the study of a particular problem. Keywords: financial programs, financial support, food production, forecasting methods, economic modeling, national economy. JEL Classification B41, C33, C53, G32, E62 Formulas: 0; fig.: 6; tabl.: 4; bibl.: 42. https://fkd.net.ua/index.php/fkd/article/view/3549financial programsfinancial supportfood productionforecasting methodseconomic modelingnational economy |
| spellingShingle | І. Rumyk S. Laptev S. Seheda L. Akimova O. Akimov M. Karpa FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND FORECASTING OF FOOD PRODUCTION USING ECONOMIC DESCRIPTION MODELING METHODS Фінансово-кредитна діяльність: проблеми теорії та практики financial programs financial support food production forecasting methods economic modeling national economy |
| title | FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND FORECASTING OF FOOD PRODUCTION USING ECONOMIC DESCRIPTION MODELING METHODS |
| title_full | FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND FORECASTING OF FOOD PRODUCTION USING ECONOMIC DESCRIPTION MODELING METHODS |
| title_fullStr | FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND FORECASTING OF FOOD PRODUCTION USING ECONOMIC DESCRIPTION MODELING METHODS |
| title_full_unstemmed | FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND FORECASTING OF FOOD PRODUCTION USING ECONOMIC DESCRIPTION MODELING METHODS |
| title_short | FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND FORECASTING OF FOOD PRODUCTION USING ECONOMIC DESCRIPTION MODELING METHODS |
| title_sort | financial support and forecasting of food production using economic description modeling methods |
| topic | financial programs financial support food production forecasting methods economic modeling national economy |
| url | https://fkd.net.ua/index.php/fkd/article/view/3549 |
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