Projections of climate-induced future range shifts among fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species in Uganda
The potential impact of future climate change on fruit fly species distribution was assessed in Uganda using two general circulation models (HADCM and CCCMA) and two future predicted CO2 emission scenarios (A2 and B2), under both full and no species dispersal modes. Future ranges were overall projec...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
2016-03-01
|
| Series: | Plant Protection Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://pps.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/pps-201601-0004_projections-of-climate-induced-future-range-shifts-among-fruit-fly-diptera-tephritidae-species-in-uganda.php |
| _version_ | 1797898457667600384 |
|---|---|
| author | Charles Masembe Brian Eriphaz Isabirye Ivan Rwomushana Caroline Kukiriza Nankinga Anne Margaret Akol |
| author_facet | Charles Masembe Brian Eriphaz Isabirye Ivan Rwomushana Caroline Kukiriza Nankinga Anne Margaret Akol |
| author_sort | Charles Masembe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The potential impact of future climate change on fruit fly species distribution was assessed in Uganda using two general circulation models (HADCM and CCCMA) and two future predicted CO2 emission scenarios (A2 and B2), under both full and no species dispersal modes. Future ranges were overall projected to decline by 25.4% by year 2050. Under full-dispersal, D. ciliatus > C. cosyra > B. invadens ranges were predicted to increase, while the rest are likely to decrease. In the no-dispersal scenario, a significant average decrease in size of niches is predicted. Range losses are predicted higher under B2 than A2. Future niches will likely shift to northern Uganda. The results should assist in the development of climate change adaptive pest management strategies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:14:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-06bb743858b94e038e4b29472e6a2bf6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1212-2580 1805-9341 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:14:46Z |
| publishDate | 2016-03-01 |
| publisher | Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Plant Protection Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-06bb743858b94e038e4b29472e6a2bf62023-02-23T03:44:17ZengCzech Academy of Agricultural SciencesPlant Protection Science1212-25801805-93412016-03-01521263410.17221/87/2014-PPSpps-201601-0004Projections of climate-induced future range shifts among fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species in UgandaCharles Masembe0Brian Eriphaz Isabirye1Ivan Rwomushana2Caroline Kukiriza Nankinga3Anne Margaret Akol4Department of Biological Sciences, College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, UgandaDepartment of Biological Sciences, College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, UgandaAssociation for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA), Entebbe, UgandaNational Agricultural Research Laboratories, Kampala, UgandaDepartment of Biological Sciences, College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, UgandaThe potential impact of future climate change on fruit fly species distribution was assessed in Uganda using two general circulation models (HADCM and CCCMA) and two future predicted CO2 emission scenarios (A2 and B2), under both full and no species dispersal modes. Future ranges were overall projected to decline by 25.4% by year 2050. Under full-dispersal, D. ciliatus > C. cosyra > B. invadens ranges were predicted to increase, while the rest are likely to decrease. In the no-dispersal scenario, a significant average decrease in size of niches is predicted. Range losses are predicted higher under B2 than A2. Future niches will likely shift to northern Uganda. The results should assist in the development of climate change adaptive pest management strategies.https://pps.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/pps-201601-0004_projections-of-climate-induced-future-range-shifts-among-fruit-fly-diptera-tephritidae-species-in-uganda.phpclimate changedispersalbacroceraniche |
| spellingShingle | Charles Masembe Brian Eriphaz Isabirye Ivan Rwomushana Caroline Kukiriza Nankinga Anne Margaret Akol Projections of climate-induced future range shifts among fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species in Uganda Plant Protection Science climate change dispersal bacrocera niche |
| title | Projections of climate-induced future range shifts among fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species in Uganda |
| title_full | Projections of climate-induced future range shifts among fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species in Uganda |
| title_fullStr | Projections of climate-induced future range shifts among fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species in Uganda |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of climate-induced future range shifts among fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species in Uganda |
| title_short | Projections of climate-induced future range shifts among fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species in Uganda |
| title_sort | projections of climate induced future range shifts among fruit fly diptera tephritidae species in uganda |
| topic | climate change dispersal bacrocera niche |
| url | https://pps.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/pps-201601-0004_projections-of-climate-induced-future-range-shifts-among-fruit-fly-diptera-tephritidae-species-in-uganda.php |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT charlesmasembe projectionsofclimateinducedfuturerangeshiftsamongfruitflydipteratephritidaespeciesinuganda AT brianeriphazisabirye projectionsofclimateinducedfuturerangeshiftsamongfruitflydipteratephritidaespeciesinuganda AT ivanrwomushana projectionsofclimateinducedfuturerangeshiftsamongfruitflydipteratephritidaespeciesinuganda AT carolinekukirizanankinga projectionsofclimateinducedfuturerangeshiftsamongfruitflydipteratephritidaespeciesinuganda AT annemargaretakol projectionsofclimateinducedfuturerangeshiftsamongfruitflydipteratephritidaespeciesinuganda |