Testing the Predictive Power of b Value for Italian Seismicity

A very efficient method for estimating the completeness magnitude mc and the scaling parameter b of earthquake magnitude distribution has been thoroughly tested using synthetic seismic catalogues. Subsequently, the method was employed to assess the capability of the b-value in differentiating betwe...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Cataldo Godano, Anna Tramelli, Giuseppe Petrillo, Vincenzo Convertito
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: McGill University 2024-02-01
Series:Seismica
Online Access:https://seismica.library.mcgill.ca/article/view/1084
Description
Summary:A very efficient method for estimating the completeness magnitude mc and the scaling parameter b of earthquake magnitude distribution has been thoroughly tested using synthetic seismic catalogues. Subsequently, the method was employed to assess the capability of the b-value in differentiating between foreshocks and aftershocks, confirming previous findings regarding the Amatrice-Norcia earthquake sequence. However, a blind algorithm reveals that the discriminative ability of the b-value necessitates a meticulous selection of the catalogue, thereby reducing the predictability of large events occurring subsequent to a prior major earthquake.
ISSN:2816-9387